A new poll from Rasmussen Reports seems to show that race is effectively back to where we were before the Democratic Convention. Polls had pointed to a significant eight point bounce for Senator Obama over the last three days of the convention but now the McCain campaign has its own bounce from the selection of Alaska Governor Palin as his running mate.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday—the day before the Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin—shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by three percentage points both with and without leaners. That’s exactly the same edge Obama enjoyed a week ago on the eve of the Democratic National Convention.
Today’s numbers show a one-point improvement for McCain, but Obama still leads 47% to 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 46%. Obama is now viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters, McCain by 56%.
There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate.
There has been little change in perceptions of Obama since his Thursday night speech and the Palin announcement. Palin herself made a good first impression and is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. Her counterpart, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 48%. While Palin has made a good first impression, the more significant numbers will come a week from now after the nation has a chance to learn more about her.
Takeaways
The race remains essentially a dead heat with neither candidate pulling away. Both candidates favorable ratings are up which points to an increasing number of swing or undecided voters. For McCain, the big pluses in this poll are the ten point rise among unaffiliated voters up to 64% and that his selection of Governor Palin is seen more favorably than that of Senator Biden by Obama.