I didn’t watch Senator Clinton’s speech. It isn’t in me to see the most experienced and capable person to run for the White House in at least a generation not get the nod of her party. It’s a travesty.

I’ll catch the highlights and read the analysis overnight. But if the above clip of Clinton delegate Ann Price Mills is any indication, I am not alone in my assessment.

More on Ann Price Mills, the Clinton delegate from Kent, Washington in Seattle’s The Stranger.

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One of the tools that we use on Wall Street to measure movement is by expressing data as a ratio and then tracking the movement of the basis points. A basis point is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1%, and is used to denote the change in any financial instrument. The basis point is commonly used for calculating changes in interest rates, equity indexes and the yield of a fixed-income security. The relationship between percentage changes and basis points can be summarized as follows: 1% change = 100 basis points, and 0.01% = 1 basis point. Tracking any movement is possible and movements can be very clearly delineated. I have decided to track both Senator Obama’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings as well as Senator McCain’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings. I take the the favorable rating and divide by the unfavorable rating to get a ratio which I have named the Lemos Favorability Ratio.

I am using Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll as my raw data. Rasmussen Reports is putting out a daily tracking poll with the national favorability versus unfavorability percentages. Their data extends back to June 4, 2008 and I have created a weekly Excel spreadsheet tracking the data. Here’s that data broken out by candidate and then a side-by-side comparison of the Lemos Favorability ratio is below the fold along with data from a recent poll in Colorado.

McCain Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide

Takeaway
In terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. For McCain, this is good news. As of right now he is enjoying the highest number to date, 1.36 in the Lemos Favorability ratio.

Obama Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide

Takeaway
Again in terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. For Obama, this is represents a challenge. As of right now he is enjoying the lowest number to date, 1.18 in the Lemos Favorability ratio. Obama peaked in late June/early July with a 1.33 Lemos Favorability ratio. He has had a 15 basis point drop since then.

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This is new ad from We Can Solve It, a non-partisan group that advocates for energy independence and energy solutions. It is a one minute spot and is set to run nationwide. The ad doesn’t mention any of the candidates but rather asks the American public to press all leaders to reduce America’s dependence on foreign oil by working towards 100% non-fossil fuel generated electricity within ten years. It’s an achievable goal. For more information, please check my previous posts in the Energy & Peak Oil category.

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“He is a little like Adlai Stevenson. You ask him a question, and he gives you a six-minute answer. And the six-minute answer is smart as all get out. It’s intellectual. It’s well framed. It takes care of all the contingencies. But it’s a lousy soundbite.” — Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania

Apparently Governor Ed Rendell watched the Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency. This is one of Senator Obama’s problem, he over intellectualizes every comment and it gets him in trouble. To begin with he comes off as aloof and out of touch and secondly, Obama then faces media scrutiny over every comma, every nuance. The infantcide debate that he now faces is a direct result of his over answering a question.

From the Washington Post:

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell captured the jitters of the Democratic Party today when he conceded that for all Barack Obama’s gifts, “he’s not exactly the easiest guy in the world to identify with” and urged the presumptive nominee to start punching back against Republican attacks.

In a wide ranging interview, Rendell insisted that while Obama still has not won over perhaps 30 percent of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s voters, he will have locked down 95 percent of them by midnight tonight, after Clinton speaks to the Democratic National Convention here. But Rendell, a strong Clinton supporter during the primaries, made it clear he thinks Obama still has work to do with the white, working class voters who backed her.

“With people who have a lot of gifts, it’s hard for people to identify with them,” the governor said. “Barack Obama is handsome. He’s incredibly bright. He’s incredibly well spoken, and he’s incredibly successful — not exactly the easiest guy in the world to identify with.”

For a politician cut from a rougher cloth, Rendell may have offered a back-handed compliment when he compared Obama to Adlai Stevenson, the failed Democratic candidate from the 1950s who captured the imagination of American intellectuals but not the electorate at large.

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Four reports on PUMAs in the news. First from CNN:

The last place Kathy Archuleta could have ever imagined she’d spend the first night of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado, was at a happy hour sponsored by the Republican Party.

But the 54-year-old Democrat joined several other Hillary Clinton supporters, along with volunteers and officials from John McCain’s campaign, at a Happy Hour for Hillary.

The event, sponsored by the Republican National Committee and approved by the McCain campaign, was a chance for McCain and Clinton supporters to come together for one cause: their opposition to Barack Obama’s candidacy.

“Four years ago, if you said we’d be at a Hillary happy hour at the DNC, I would have called you crazy. But today is a great opportunity for people who … agree that Sen. Barack Obama doesn’t have the experience to be president of the United States,” said McCain campaign regional communications director Tom Kise.

As Michelle Obama was delivering her “One Nation” unity speech on the convention floor several blocks away, more than 100 people gathered at the Paramount Café in downtown Denver.

In a side room, both groups of supporters discussed politics, sports and the convention while sipping cocktails and munching on tacos and a cheese spread.

But there was nothing unified for these Clinton supporters who walked across the aisle or, in this case, the cafe Monday night.

Archuleta, who hails from Denver, has been a registered Democrat all her life — until now.

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I have often wondered if Senator Obama’s campaign was a Roman farce or a Greek tradegy. Apparently, he has settled for the Greek tradegy motif. The report from Reuters:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s big speech on Thursday night will be delivered from an elaborate columned stage resembling a miniature Greek temple.

The stage, similar to structures used for rock concerts, has been set up at the 50-yard-line, the midpoint of Invesco Field, the stadium where the Denver Broncos’ National Football League team plays.

Some 80,000 supporters will see Obama appear from between plywood columns painted off-white, reminiscent of Washington’s Capitol building or even the White House, to accept the party’s nomination for president.

He will stride out to a raised platform to a podium that can be raised from beneath the floor.

The show should provide a striking image for the millions of Americans watching on television as Obama delivers a speech accepting the Democratic presidential nomination.

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With the uptick in traffic, I have gotten a few pieces of hate mail charging me with being a racist. Let’s see the logic here, I don’t support Obama ergo I am a racist. Trying reading my posts instead.

With that out of the way, I am not the only one being charged with being a racist. Apparently all those who don’t care for Obama are racists according to Gerald McEntee, president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), a union that actually supported Senator Clinton in the primaries. Were they then racists back then?

From The Hill:

A prominent union leader on Tuesday blamed racism for Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) failure to build a big lead over GOP rival Sen. John McCain. Gerald McEntee, president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), said many workers are considering voting for McCain (R-Ariz.) because of his military service and status as a hero of the Vietnam War.

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It’s official! The selection of Senator Joe Biden is a splat, no bounce at all. An egg dropped from a skyscrapper has more bounce. That’s not to say that Senator Biden may not have an impact down the line, he still might but as of right now, it’s the Biden splat.

Here are two polls. First, the daily tracking Rasmussen Reports poll that shows the race a dead heat once again among registered voters and now among likely voters as well. Yesterday, Obama led among likely voters by three points.

The Democratic National Convention has begun and the poll numbers are bouncing, but not in the direction that most people anticipated.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain also earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s still tied with Obama at 46% and McCain at 46%. Yesterday, with leaners, Obama had a three-point advantage over McCain.

Obama is supported by 78% of Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans. The GOP hopeful also has a slight advantage among unaffiliated voters. Tracking poll results are based upon nightly telephone survey interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s results are the first based entirely upon interviews conducted since Joe Biden was named to be Obama’s running mate.

Obama’s support has declined in each of the last three individual nights of polling. This may be either statistical noise or a reaction to the selection of Biden. If it’s the latter, it probably has less to do with Biden than Hillary Clinton. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Democratic women say Clinton should have been picked and 21% of them say they’ll vote for McCain.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 53% (see trends). Clinton is viewed favorably by 47%.

Takeaway
Senator McCain is shoring up his base in advance of the Republican National Convention next week while Senator Obama failed to do so. The Biden selection had no impact and Obama continues to struggle with those who preferred Senator Clinton. My own view is that up to third of Clinton voters won’t be voting for Obama with the lion’s share of those actually voting for Senator McCain. (more…)

Last night, supporters of Senator Clinton gathered at Cheeseman Park in an event called The Rise in celebration of Senator Clinton’s candidacy. Here is a video report from the event from the Denver Post.

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Just how much more brutal can it get for Senator Obama and his sagging campaign? Today a 527 group (a 527 group is a type of American tax-exempt organization named after a section of the United States tax code, 26 U.S.C. § 527 that run political issues advocacy campaigns) called Vets for Freedom calls on Senator Obama to support “Senate Resolution 636, a bi-partisan resolution in the United State Senate sponsored by Senators Lieberman and Graham”. Apparentely, Senator Lieberman still counts as bi-partisan.
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