Archive for August 24th, 2008
Delaware Senate Race

In addition to now running on the Democratic ticket as the number two man, Senator Biden faces a re-election campaign in his home state of Delaware. Delaware law allows Biden to run for Vice President and Senator at the same time, so he would keep the seat should the ticket lose. But if he is elected Vice President, the Democratic Governor, Ruth Ann Minner will appoint a successor until a special election can be held.

In his re-election bid, Senator Biden, a member of the Senate since 1973, faces token GOP opposition from Christine O’Donnell, a conservative media analyst and occasional pundit. The first video is a campaign ad from Senator Biden. The service I subscribe to, Campaign TV Ads, didn’t have any ads from the O’Donnell campaign. In fact, she doesn’t even have a website. Instead, I chose to run one of her appearances on CNN as a pundit. Safe to say that Biden will win at least one race this November.

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Namibia’s Etosha National Park

Namibia’s Etosha National Park is one of the world’s great national parks. Meaning “great white basin,” Etosha National Park is dominated by a large mineral basin that is part of the larger Kalahari basin and desert. The park is one of the world’s oldest national parks having been declared a park in 1907 when Namibia was still German South West Africa. While colonialism was a brutal experience for Africa, the Germans were probably the best of Africa’s colonial masters. While most colonies in Africa were a money losing enterprise for European countries (not for corporations but for European treasuries), the Germans had profitable colonies. German efficiency and German bureaucracy and all that. Germany would lose its African possessions in the wake of World War I and the area would pass to South African control.

Etosha National Park covers an area of 22 270 square km. Though it is a dry harsh place, it is home to 114 mammal species, 340 bird species, 110 reptile species, 16 amphibian species and, surprisingly, one species of fish. The Etosha Pan covers about a quarter of the park. The pan was originally a lake fed by the Kunene River. However, the course of the river changed thousands of years ago and the lake dried up leaving a large dusty depression of salt and dusty clay which fills only if the rains are heavy and even then only holds water for a short time. This temporary water in the Etosha Pan attracts thousands of wading birds including impressive flocks of flamingos. The perennial springs along the edges of the Etosha Pan draw large concentrations of wildlife and birds.

While the animals in the park are protected and the park is one Africa’s best managed natural reserves, last month Namibia lifted its ban on the sale of ivory. More on the temporary lifting of the ban of the sale of ivory from All Africa.

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Senator Clinton to Release Her Delegates

Earlier today there were unconfirmed reports that delegates were to be required to state their voting intentions in writing by tonight. Why? US political conventions leave nothing to chance and it appears that Senator Obama didn’t want to be embarrassed at any point should he have trailed at any point during the roll nomination. Now comes word that Senator Clinton will officially release her delegates allowing them to vote for Senator Obama.

From the Associated Press:

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, hoping to unite the Democratic Party and cement her future in it, will gather her hard-won primary delegates Wednesday at a reception where she is expected to formally release them to Barack Obama.

The New York senator has invited her pledged delegates to a reception at the Colorado Convention Center, not far from the main Democratic National Convention arena.

The high-profile gathering of political regulars who once fought against Obama serves a dual purpose for Clinton: Show fellow Democrats that she can be a team player, and display her still-formidable political strengths for the future. Many of her supporters want her to run for president again.

A Democratic official told The Associated Press Sunday, a day before the convention begins, that she is expected to release her delegates at the Wednesday event. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to discuss details publicly.

Asked about Clinton’s plans for the event, her spokesman Philippe Reines said it will be “an opportunity for Senator Clinton to see her delegates — many for the first time since the primaries ended, thank them for their hard work and support, and most importantly to encourage them to support and work for Senator Obama as strongly as she has in order to elect him in November.”

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Colorado — A Dead Heat

I referenced this poll in the previous post on the polling result for the six-state Mountain West region, but I thought I would delve more into the numbers from this poll that is exclusively for Colorado. Colorado may be the state to watch in this election though Virginia may be another critical state as well. The race in Colorado has been within the margin of error for both candidates since June with Obama holding a slight lead early on and McCain trending better as of late. While the poll shows the race in a statistical tie, an analysis beneath the numbers paint a rosier scenario for Senator McCain.

Now for the full report from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute:

Sen. Barack Obama enters the Democratic National Convention in a dead heat with Sen. John McCain for Colorado’s crucial nine electoral votes, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today. Sen. McCain has 47 percent to Sen. Obama’s 46 percent.

This compares to a July 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing McCain with 46 percent of likely voters to Obama’s 44 percent and a June 26 survey with a 49 – 44 percent Obama lead.

This latest survey might have more good news for McCain than might appear at first glance. Despite the closeness of the horse race numbers, he is viewed favorably 53 – 34 percent compared to Obama’s 48 – 39 percent.

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The Mountain West — McCain Defending His Backyard

In a poll commissioned by the Denver Post, Las Salt Lake City Tribune, the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. found that in the Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming that Senator McCain holds a wide lead overall and is leading in all states except Colorado where the race is a dead heat with Obama up a point there. On the other hand, Quinnipiac University poll also out today in Colorado shows McCain leading Obama by a point again showing the race in a dead heat. McCain had been trailing in Nevada and New Mexico but now leads comfortably outside the margin of error. Here are the poll results from the Mason-Dixon poll:

Nevada voters favor Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama, but a sizable number who plan to vote remain undecided about the presidential race, according to a new Review-Journal poll.

As both parties aim to put the diverse and growing swing state into play, McCain has taken the lead by a margin of 46 percent to Obama’s 39 percent, with 15 percent undecided, according to the poll.

The poll, conducted in concert with other news organizations in six Western states, found McCain enjoying an edge throughout his home region.

Taken as a whole, voters in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming favored McCain, 48 percent to 39 percent, with 13 percent undecided. McCain led in every state except Colorado.

The overall regional poll average carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, while individual state polls carry a margin of error of 5 percentage points in either direction. Four hundred likely voters were surveyed in each state by telephone Aug. 13-15.

“McCain has widened his lead and seems to have gained a bit of an upper hand in Nevada,” said Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., the Washington, D.C.-based firm that conducted the poll for the Review-Journal, the Denver Post and the Salt Lake Tribune.

“It’s still early and there’s a lot that is going to happen (before the election in November), but coming out of the gate McCain is in the lead.”

A Review-Journal poll in June found a closer result, with McCain up 44 percent to 42 percent and 14 percent undecided, a statistical tie that most other polls in the state, considered an electoral toss-up, have reflected.

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The McCain Ad on Why Not Hillary?

Here’s the ad just released by the McCain campaign that I referenced earlier tonight. The ad is a 30 spot and likely intended to reach out to the 20% to 40% of Hillary Clinton supporters that are less than enthralled with the very junior Senator from Illinois. The ad is to run nationally but will get its most airtime in the states that Senator Clinton carried, which surprise surprise also happen to be the battleground swing states. Funny that.

I don’t see how the Obama campaign can respond to this ad. What do they say? A spokesperson for Senator Clinton did respond with a statement:

“[Hillary Clinton] has said repeatedly that Barack Obama and she share a commitment to changing the direction of the country, getting us out of Iraq, and expanding access to health care,” says Clinton spokeswoman Kathleen Strand. “It’s interesting how those remarks didn’t make it into his ad.

All fine and good but it’s a statement not an ad. Somehow I think Senator Clinton will get corraled into doing spots for Senator Obama. I hope not but it may come to that.

Thoughts on McCain’s Branding of Obama
For the past month, the McCain campaign has rather adroitly exploited several avenues of attack on Senator Obama. To begin with, the McCain used Obama’s cult of personality against him in a way that Senator Clinton never really did. She did mock Obama a few times in campaign stump speeches, most notably in Providence and in Cincinnati on the eve of the Ohio/Texas/Rhode Island/Vermont primaries but those were stump speeches not ads. Ads are more effective because of the repetition. It is my view that Obama seriously erred with his speech in Berlin. In hindsight that may have been the first turning point.

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Madonna — Hilter = Mugagbe = McCain

Tonight in Cardiff, Wales, Madonna, age 50, kicked off her “Hard Candy” world tour. At one point during her show, she ran slides first of Adolf Hilter followed by Robert Mugagbe and then John McCain. Subtle. And idiotic. That’s only going to antagonize McCain’s base and hardly galvanize Obama’s.

From the International Herald Tribune:

It should come as no surprise that the queen of pop is again courting controversy. The first show of Madonna’s world tour made a foray into U.S. politics with a none-too-subtle dig at U.S. presidential hopeful John McCain Saturday night.

Images of destruction and global warming flashed on to a screen during a video interlude. Those were followed by pictures of Adolf Hitler, Zimbabwe’s authoritarian ruler Robert Mugabe — and McCain.

A later sequence showed slain Beatle John Lennon, climate activist Al Gore, Mahatma Gandhi and finally McCain’s democratic rival, Barack Obama.

Once the interlude was over, Madonna threw herself into a rave-inflected rendition of “Like a Prayer.” She finished off the concert with her thumping “Give it 2 Me” from her new album “Hard Candy.”

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