I reported on the SUSA poll last week and now a Rasmussen Reports polls confirms that earlier poll. McCain is up in the Hoosier state by six points among likely voters. Indiana last voted for a Democrat in the 1964 LBJ landslide. Over the past 100 years, Indiana has only gone Democratic times four times, 1912, 1932, 1936, 1964. George W. Bush carried Indiana by 20 points in 2000 and by 16 points in 2004.
For two months, the US Presidential race in Indiana had been a statistical dead heat with neither candidate leading by more than the margin of error though for most of this period Obama held the slight lead. This now has changed and McCain’s leads seems to be solidifying if anything.
Indiana is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, but it also neighbors Barack Obama’s home state of Illinois. Hoosiers still prefer Republican John McCain, but the race could be closer than in recent years.
The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Obama earns 42%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain by six, 49% to 43%. Leaners are survey participants who initially indicate no preference for either major candidate but indicate that they are leaning towards either McCain or Obama.
McCain is viewed favorably by 65% of Indiana voters, Obama by 52%.
Obama earns Very Favorable reviews from 28% while 27% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of him. For McCain, those numbers are 23% Very Favorable and 12% Very Unfavorable.
McCain leads by 12 among men, and the candidates are essentially even among women.
Forty-one percent (41%) of Indiana voters say the economy is the most important issue of Election 2008. Twenty-five percent (25%) name national security issues. Those figures are close to the national average.
Parts of northwestern Indiana are effectively suburbs of Chicago, Obama’s home base. During the Indiana Primary, strong turnout in this region almost enabled Obama to pull off an upset victory. Four years ago, John Kerry racked up a 23-percentage point margin over George Bush in Lake County, the state’s most northwestern county.
What is worrisome about Obama’s numbers are his high unfavorable rating of 27% compared to just 12% for McCain. In my view, McCain is succeeding in making this election about Obama. McCain’s ads are all branded very well and they are on message — Is Obama ready to lead? No.