In mid-June, Senator Obama enjoyed a double digit lead in New Hamphire. Even as recent as a month ago, Obama led by a comfortable six points. That lead is now gone. It has become a rocky road for the very junior Senator from Illinois in the Granite State. The new Rasmussen Reports poll out today now shows Obama leads by a statistically insignificant one point. Since that is within the margin of error, the race in New Hampshire is a dead heat.
New Hampshire has long been one of the country’s most true conservative states. It voted for Hoover in the 1932 FDR landslide. It lasted voted for a Democrat in 1964 but in recent years, the southern part of the state has, in effect, become a suburb of liberal Boston changing New Hampshire’s politics.
The presidential race in New Hampshire is now a toss-up. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that Barack Obama’s once-double-digit lead over John McCain is down to a statistically insignificant one-point lead, 43% to 42%.
When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 47% to 46%. The Democrat’s support has steadily decreased in the Granite State since he clinched the nomination in early June. Obama fell from an 11-percentage point lead in mid-June to a six-point lead in July. The latest numbers mark the closest the race has been so far this year.
The latest numbers show support growing for McCain from those in his party. He now earns the vote from 87% of GOP voters, up from 78% a month ago. Though Obama still has a 42% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters, support for the Democrat is down from 50% last month. He also has a 46% to 38% lead among women. Among men in New Hampshire, McCain has a 46% to 40% edge.
While Obama has a solid lead among younger voters, the race is close among voters between the ages of 30 and 64. McCain has a dominant lead among voters age 65 and older.
Obama is viewed favorably by 55%, while McCain is viewed favorably by 57%. The Democrat is viewed very favorably by 28% and very unfavorably by 29%. Meanwhile, 23% have a very favorable opinion of McCain, while 16% have a very unfavorable view of the GOP candidate.
The issue of energy has been at the front of many voters’ minds this election season. In New Hampshire, 60% of voters think finding new energy sources is more important than reducing the amount of energy Americans now consume. Thirty-four percent (34%) take the opposite view. While 87% of voters believe finding new sources is an urgent national need, 75% also feel that way about reducing energy consumption.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters in New Hampshire think media bias is a bigger problem than large campaign contributions in politics today. Thirty-nine percent (39%) think campaign contributions are the bigger problem. Again, those figures also reflect the views of voters nationwide. The majority of voters (64%) say most politicians will break the rules in order to help people who contribute money to their campaigns. While 44% of voters say McCain is too influenced by contributors and lobbyists, 36% believe that of Obama.
President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from just 26% of New Hampshire voters, while 52% give him poor reviews.
In New Hampshire’s race for the Senate, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen has expanded her lead over incumbent John Sununu.
New Hampshire has four electoral votes.