An email sent to Memphis City Council and Democratic Party Superdelegate Myron Lowery from a PUMA member:

“In just over a week, you will be casting your vote at the Convention. I am writing to remind you that it is your solemn obligation to use your integrity and good judgment and vote for the candidate who is most electable, and can truly defeat John McCain in November and put a Democratic President in the White House.

“On June 7, Senator Clinton only suspended, not ended her campaign. We have now been assured that Senator Clinton’s name will be placed in nomination. As you know, neither Senator Clinton nor Senator Obama has actually clinched the nomination since neither of them has won enough pledged delegates to reach a majority. That is why it has fallen upon you, and your fellow Superdelegates, to make the most important choice you can make at this urgent time for our nation. There is still time to choose the most electable candidate — Senator Hillary Clinton.”

Ever since it was announced that Senator Clinton’s name would be put in nomination, members of the PUMA movement have been barraging superdelegates of the Democratic Party with an emails urging them to switch their votes from Senator Obama to Senator Clinton. Personally, I think it is highly unlikely that any pro-Obama superdelegate will switch their vote at this stage of the game barring either a complete collapse in the polls or an act of god. Sure, Obama has fallen in the polls but he still remains tied or ahead in the national tracking polls. In my view, Obama would have to drop another ten points before the Democratic Party’s superdelegates truly panic and that’s not going to happen in the next week.

Not that some of them aren’t worried, they are. Both Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and Tennessee Governore Phil Bredesen both earlier this week expressed ” great concern” urging Senator Obama to get more specific on policy proposals. But both of these governors were Clinton supporters. They knew the danger of nominating Obama months ago and their fears are now being realized. The problem is that they never drank the kool-aid but among those who did, the effects have yet to wear off. It was a potent batch.

It’s the Obama crowd among the party’s leadership that remains confident that all is on the right track especially since an apparently “combative” Obama reassures them of such every day. In San Francisco on Sunday Obama raised a record $7.8 million USD from just 1,400 people. Even among some superdelegates who may have fears lurking about Obama’s electability come November in the backs of their minds are simply mesmerized by that all that cash. What’s not to love about the sight of those greenbacks? Speaker Nancy Pelosi gushed that Obama was “a leader that God has blessed us with at this time.” Leader or ATM? And talk about delusional since when does god bless a political party? But let’s also face the reality the DNC loves Obama’s ability to generate cash more than his ability to generate votes.

Now the PUMA email campaign is getting some press. Not quite sure if it is good press or bad press. Certainly, the objects of PUMA affection seem to be less than pleased. From the Memphis Commercial Appeal:

A massive e-mail and Internet campaign is under way aimed at derailing the nomination of Barack Obama and making Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democratic Party’s standard bearer next week at the national convention in Denver.

“It’s downright nasty,” said Memphis superdelegate and City Council member Myron Lowery, who shared dozens of the messages he has received with The Commercial Appeal.

“I think it’s divisive for the ‘Support Hillary’ campaign to continue at this time. She made the decision to fully support Mr. Obama,” said Lowery. “I don’t know why they’re not taking their cue from Hillary and falling in line.”

Lowery said he does not believe Clinton is behind the effort, but that it’s “her supporters, acting on their own because they’re proud of what they have done for her.”

Most of the messages Lowery has received from across the country come from Hillary supporters making the case that she won more votes in the primaries, that she won bigger states, that Obama won states that won’t vote Democratic in November and that she is the only “elect-able” Democrat.

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For most of the Summer of 2008, the Minnesota Senate Race has been in a dead heat but in the past week, incumbent GOP Senator Norm Coleman has opened up a seven point lead over the Democratic-Farm Labor candidate, Al Franken, the noted humourist. From Survey USA:

In elections in Minnesota for United States Senate today, 08/15/08, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman defeats DFL candidate Al Franken by 7 points, and defeats Franken’s primary opponent, Priscilla Lord Faris, by 18 points, according to this exclusive KSTP-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Coleman tops Franken 46% to 39% today, tops Faris 45% to 27% — but the seven candidates running in the Independence Party primary present a material complication. In a Coleman-Franken match up, 16% of likely voters say they will vote for another candidate or are undecided. In a Coleman-Faris race, 28% say they will vote for another candidate or are undecided. After 09/09/08 primary, picture may come into sharper focus. Against Franken, Coleman today leads by 11 points among men, by 3 among women. Among voters age 18 to 49, Coleman leads Franken by 12 points; among those 50+, Coleman and Franken tie. Against Faris, Coleman holds a significant lead among all demographic groups, save one; voters age 65+ prefer Coleman just slightly. Franken takes 3 of 4 Democratic votes, but Faris manages just 56% among Democrats. Coleman takes near 9 of 10 Republican votes against either DFL candidate. Independents, the wild card in this race, give 30% of their votes to Franken and 17% of their votes to some other candidate if Franken is the DFL nominee; if Faris is the nominee, those numbers essentially flip, with Faris taking 16% of independent votes and some other candidate taking 28%. In 1998, Minnesota voters elected Jesse Ventura, a Reform Party candidate, as governor.

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His war chest swelled with cash, Senator Obama has been running versions of the above ad across at least a dozen battleground states. Unlike his positive ads, he has not been releasing to the media the negative attack ads or even the contrast ads (ads that may not necessarily be negative but rather just contrast policy positions). It is rather odd that the Obama campaign has chosen this tact but the consensus among political observers is that the Obama campaign doesn’t want the media nor general public to know how negative the campaign has gotten. Obama wants to maintain the veneer that he is running an uplifting campaign based on his themes of hope and change. The reality is otherwise.

From the New York Times:

Senator Barack Obama has started a sustained and hard-hitting advertising campaign against Senator John McCain in states that will be vital this fall, painting Mr. McCain in a series of commercials as disconnected from the economic struggles of the middle class.

Mr. Obama has begun the drive with little fanfare, often eschewing the modern campaign technique of unveiling new spots for the news media before they run in an effort to win added (free) attention. Mr. Obama, whose candidacy has been built in part on a promise to transcend traditional politics, is running the negative commercials on local stations even as he runs generally positive spots nationally, during prime-time coverage of the Olympics.

The negative spots reflect the sharper tone Mr. Obama has struck in recent days on the stump as he heads into his party’s nominating convention in Denver next week, and seem to address the anxiety among some Democrats that Mr. Obama has not answered a volley of attacks by Mr. McCain with enough force.

“If you can go quietly negative, that’s what he’s done; I think the perception is that he’s still running the positive campaign,” said Evan Tracey, president of the Campaign Media Analysis Group of TNS Media Intelligence, which monitors political advertising. “It’s a pretty smart, high-low, good cop/bad cop strategy.”

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The liberal grassroots group MoveOn.org has released a new ad in North Carolina attacking Senator McCain and Senator Elizabeth Dole. MoveOn accuses both of being in the pocket of big oil. I can’t speak to charges on Senator Dole but perhaps someone should remind MoveOn that Senator Obama voted for the Bush Cheney Energy Policy and that Senator McCain did not.

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The latest Rasmussen Reports polls show that the Democratic incumbent Senator Dick Durbin maintains a large lead over his Republican challenger, Dr. Steven Sauerberg.

Illinois Senator Dick Durbin, the number two Democrat in the Senate, continues to dominate his Republican opponent Steve Sauerberg in his bid for re-election. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the incumbent leading 60% to 31%.

When “leaners” are included, Durbin leads 61% to 33%.

In July, Durbin was ahead 61% to 27%. He is currently seeking his third term in the Senate. Sauerberg is a doctor from the Chicago suburbs.

Durbin, the Senate majority whip since January 2007, leads 57% to 33% among men in Illinois and 62% to 29% among women. The incumbent also has a 59% to 20% lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Durbin is viewed favorably by 59% of Illinois voters and unfavorably by 29%. Sauerberg’s numbers are 37% favorable and 30% unfavorable, while 33% are not sure.

While no poll results were reported in the US Presidential race in Illinois, the Rasmussen Reports noted that:

Barack Obama, the state’s other senator, remains comfortably ahead of his Republican presidential rival John McCain in Illinois, now considered perhaps the most reliably Democratic state in the Midwest.

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The former GOP Congressman from Georgia, best known for leading the impeachment proceeedings against President Clinton, is now the candidate of the Libertarian Party. National polls that include third party candidates show that Barr is polling approximately 3%. However, Barr is likely doing better than that in states like Georgia and North Carolina. He is currently on the ballot in 38 states and expects to be on the ballot in at least 48 states.

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In yet another indication that perhaps the tide is turning, Senator McCain has recaptured the lead in the polls in Florida though his lead remains within the margin of error. The latest Rasmussen Reports polls show that John McCain has recaptured the lead over Barack Obama in Florida by a three point margin, 46% to 43%.

John McCain has recaptured the lead over Barack Obama in Florida, besting his Democratic opponent 46% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Counting “leaners,” McCain attracts 48% of the voter while Obama earns 46%. That advantage for McCain is well within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

While Obama remains close in the polls, he is viewed unfavorably by 48% of Florida voters, including 57% of white voters. Just 49% of all voters give the Democrat a favorable assessment. McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of Florida voters and unfavorably by 36%.

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The President of Zambia, Dr. Levy Mwanawasa, has died in Paris after a long illness. He was 59. A stalwart of democratic governance, Levy Mwanawasa. Dr. Mwanawasa suffered a stroke on June 29, this year while in Egypt where he had gone to attend the African Union Summit. He was admitted to Sharm-El-Sheik International hospital before being evacuated to Percy Military hospital in Paris France where he died this morning.

Dr. Levy Mwanawasa first won election in 2001 in Zambia winning 29% of the vote in a crowded field of ten candidates. Zambia has a first past the post electoral system (the candidate with the most votes wins with no run-off). In 2006, Dr. Mwanawasa won re-election with 43% of the vote. Free and fair elections are rare in Africa but Zambia is an exception.

Dr. Mwanawasa was exceptional in many ways. In January 2005, Mwanawasa apologized to the nation for failing to tackle Zambian poverty. About 75% of the country’s population live on less than $1 a day, the United Nations’ indicator of absolute poverty. And mostly recently, he was the first of Africa’s leaders to criticize Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe breaking a long-standing tradition among African leaders of not criticizing other leaders.

More on the life of Dr. Mwanawasa and the reaction in Zambia from the Lusaka Times.

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The McCain campaign has released this radio ad in Spanish targeting Hispanic voters in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. The ad is a 60 second spot. The ad opens with an attack on Obama’s celebrity status and then asks if Obama is ready to lead. The ad then hits Obama for raising taxes and on energy policy.

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That Senator Obama was competitive in Indiana this long is certainly somewhat astounding, Indiana is one of the strongest GOP states. Indiana last voted for a Democrat in the 1964 LBJ landslide. Over the past 100 years, Indiana has only gone Democratic times four times, 1912, 1932, 1936, 1964. George W. Bush carried Indiana by 20 points in 2000 and by 16 points in 2004.

For two months, the US Presidential race in Indiana has been a statistical dead heat with neither candidate leading by more than the margin of error though for most of this period Obama held the slight lead. This now has changed. Obama has faded and whereas previously an Obama decline was necessarily match by a gain for McCain, this new Survey USA poll from the Hoosier state shows that there has been a slow but steady shift towards McCain over the past month or so.

In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3. Among those who regularly attend religious services, McCain leads by 28 points, up from 16 points eight weeks ago. Among those who occasionally attend, Obama leads by 14. Among those who rarely attend, Obama leads by 23. The field period for this survey overlapped with the candidates’ participation in Pastor Rick Warren’s Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency, held in California 08/16/08. Among men, McCain leads by 12 points; among women, McCain and Obama tie. Eight weeks ago, Obama had led by 7 among women. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, the two candidates tie. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 21 points; among voters who are in-between the two candidates’ ages, McCain leads by 9. 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain. Independents favor Obama by 12 points. Among those who have graduated from a 4-year college, McCain leads by 15 points; among those who have not, McCain and Obama tie. Among those with household incomes of less than $50,000, Obama leads by 11; among those with incomes above $50,000, McCain leads by 18.

Indiana boasts 11 electoral votes. In 2008, Indiana does not have a Senate seat for re-election.

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