Russia Said to Control a Third of Georgia
President Saakashvili says the Russian army controls around a third of Georgia, two days after both Moscow and Tbilisi signed up to a ceasefire. Tanks and troops deployed around three Georgian towns despite growing international pressure for the military to withdraw. A report with video from Euro News.
Russia To Help South Ossetia and Abkhazia To Secede From Georgia
It is pretty clear that this is retaliation for the West’s shameful role in breaking Kosovo off from Serbia. Recognition of Kosovo was a serious blunder. We needed to work with Serbia and we failed to do that. More from the New York Times.
German Chancellor Merkel Visits Russia and Georgia
German Chancellor Merkel is to meet Russian President Medvedev Friday and visit Tbilisi next week for talks with President Saakashvili on forging a long-lasting peace between Georgia and Russia after a bloody conflict. More from Deutsche Welle.
The Crisis of Western Diplomacy
The war in the Caucasus is a truly global crisis. Russia’s action against the western-looking Georgia testifies to an extreme craving for recognition and is reminiscent of the Cold War. It reveals the reality of the chaotic new world order — a result of the failures of President Bush’s foreign policy. A in-depth analysis from Germany’s Der Spiegel.
Secretary Rice Arrives in Tbilisi
Ms Rice, who is hoping to secure President Mikheil Saakashvili’s agreement for a French-brokered peace plan, earlier said: “It is time for this crisis to be over. Georgia, whose territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty we fully respect, must be able to go back to normal life.” The US warned Russia of the “profound implications” for their relationship caused by Moscow’s military action in Georgia. The report from the UK Telegraph.
Georgia and NATO
Fistful of Euros notes that “the Russian-Georgian war should remind everyone of a very important point regarding NATO and the European Union. Specifically, just as John Lewis Gaddis said about the Cold War, reassurance was as important as deterrence, and this made self-deterrence very important indeed”. I’ll add that I took a class at Stanford on International Security from Professor Rice. She noted then security at its core is about reassurance and enhancing the security of the opposing party. Enhance theirs and you enhance yours. We failed to do that with the Russians.
How to Stop Putin
An Op-Ed by Charles Krauthammer of the Washington Post on how to deal with Putin’s Russia.
The Russia-Georgia cease-fire brokered by France’s president is less than meets the eye. Its terms keep moving as the Russian army keeps moving. Russia has since occupied Gori (appropriately, Stalin’s birthplace), effectively cutting Georgia in two. The road to the capital, Tbilisi, is open, but apparently Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has temporarily chosen to seek his objectives through military pressure and Western acquiescence rather than by naked occupation.
His objectives are clear. They go beyond detaching South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia and absorbing them into Russia. They go beyond destroying the Georgian army, leaving the country at Russia’s mercy.
The real objective is the Finlandization of Georgia through the removal of President Mikheil Saakashvili and his replacement by a Russian puppet.
Finlandization refers to the policies followed by Finland after the Russo-Finnish War of 1939-1940. Finland had been a Russian Protectatorate under the Tsars but gained independence from Moscow in 1918. Russia invaded Finland in late 1939 and fought a brief six month war known as the Winter War. After WW II, Finland regained its independence but at a price. To begin with Finland lost 10% of its national territory, primarily the province of Karelia. But Finland adopted a form of neutrality. Finland was technically neutral like Switzerland and Sweden but with a caveat. Finland pursue an international policy that would under no conditions antagonize Moscow. In effect, Finland was limited in what it could do without bringing in Russian interference. Finland was able to shake off Finlandization after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Finland has since joined the EU and it is considered the most European of EU member states. Referendums on Europe pass by a wider margin in Finland than anywhere else.
Finland is not a member of NATO. However, NATO’s relations with Finland are conducted through the Partnership for Peace framework, which Finland joined in 1994. NATO and Finland actively cooperate on peace and security operations and have developed practical cooperation in many other areas. Finnish cooperation with NATO is based on its longstanding policy of military non-alignment and a firm national political consensus.
One of my favorite historical ancedotes involves the start of the Russo-Finnish War of 1939-40. Stalin was demanding that Finland ceded Karelia and allow the stationing of Russian troops fearing a German attack on Russia through Finland. Stalin summoned the Finnish Prime Minister Aimo Kaarlo Cajander to Moscow and attempted to persuade the Finnish Prime Minister into making those concessions. Prime Minister Aimo Kaarlo Cajander would have none of it. After hours of negotiations that were going nowhere, Stalin got impatient and asked the Finnish Prime Minister how many troops were in the Finnish army.
Aimo Kaarlo Cajander answered back “200,000.” Stalin retorted that Russia had 400,000 troops on the border right now ready to go. The Finnish Prime Minister said nothing instead writing down a few notes on his pad. Not getting an answer, Stalin asked Risto Heikki Ryti what he was writing. The Finnish Prime Minister replied, “I’m writing the orders to give my men two bullets each.”
While Finland today is one of the wealthiest nations in Europe and the home to Nokia, Finland in 1939 was one of Europe’s poorest countries.