In a new SUSA poll shows John McCain with a slight one point lead, 48% to 47%, over Senator Obama in the Commonwealth of Virginia. As that is within the margin of error, the race in Virginia is effectively a statistical tie. In 2004, George W. Bush carried Virginia by an eight point margin winning the commonwealth’s 13 electoral votes.
This year Virginia also has a US Senate race, if you can call it that. With GOP Senator John Warner’s retirement, the seat is an open one and it looks to be a Democratic pick-up as of now. In the SUSA poll, the Democratic candidate, Mark Warner (no relation), leads the Republican candidate, James Gilmore, by a 24 point margin. Warner leads 58% to 34%. The first video is a Warner campaign ad, the second video a biographical short on Jim Gilmore. There were no televisions ads available.
The Tennessee Republican Party has unleashed this 90 second spot covering Senator Obama’s flipflops on the issues. The ad is Internet only. Earlier, this year, it was the Tennessee GOP State Party that created anti-Michelle Obama ad in which Tennesseans expressed why they were proud of their country. That ad has now been copied by other GOP State Parties.
The ad is well made. It, like Obama’s own position changes, does leave one dizzy.
According to The Nation of Lahore, one of the leading English-language newspapers in Pakistan, General Pervez Musharaff will step down as President of Pakistan soon after Pakistan’s Independence Day which is August 14th.
After the hectic efforts by the powers that be, President Pervez Musharraf has finally decided to step down soon after Pakistan Independence Day (August 14), highly placed sources told WAQT News here on Tuesday. The sources said, according to the understanding reached among the concerned quarters, it was decided that Musharraf would not be held responsible for the past misdeeds and would be allowed to walk away scot-free.
The background interviews with three close aides of Musharraf have revealed that Musharraf, already upset with the results of February 18 elections followed by the tone and tenor of Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif, received first serious blow when the duo announced impeachment strategy.
Watching the joint press conference of Asif Ali Zardari and Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif on August 7th in his room on a mega screen was perhaps the worst moment in Pervez Musharraf’s last 8 years of absolute rule.
Later he discussed the issue with his close friends and aides and sought their advice. The discourse was followed by a very engaging discussion with his family members.
The sources said that Brigadier (Retd) Niaz and Tariq Aziz, Secretary of National Security Council (NSC) were the first two close friends who found him seeking a safe exit.
Both of them held separate meetings with different political and military people to ensure the safe exit for their buddy, Pervez Musharraf.
Sources claimed, Musharraf is likely to demand an opportunity to address the nation before formally announcing his resignation.
As far as his future plans are concerned, he initially wants to stay in Chak Shehzad at his farm-house, however, he may leave Pakistan after a couple of months, the sources said.
Pakistan’s busiest person Pervez Musharraf, as he was six months back, is having enough time to ponder over future plans, particularly after his decision to step down. He has enough time to play tennis and bridge with his friends. However he avoids reading local newspapers and watching TV shows.
One MNA of PML (Q), who met President recently, told this scribe on condition of anonymity that he met with a smiling but broken President Musharraf at his office. “When I assured him of party’s full support and that everything would go smooth, Musharraf did not respond and avoided talking about impeachment,” he observed.
Musharaff’s departure would certainly mean a realignment of Pakistani politics and likely either a dangerous instability at a time when the war on terror is heating up in the Tribal Areas bordering Afghanistan or it will eventually bring another military coup.
From Qatar’s Al Jazeera, Inside Story on the Musharaff Impeachment Proceedings. Pakistan’s governing coalition is moving to impeach President Pervez Musharraf. They claim he has plunged Pakistan into political and economic crises during nearly nine years of single-handed rule.
Deserted by many of his former supporters, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf lost more ground in his struggle to stay in office, as lawmakers in the country’s North West Frontier Province passed a resolution demanding he step down.
The vote came a day after legislators in Pakistan’s largest province of Punjab passed a similar resolution, with Mr. Musharraf’s former allies joining the call for his removal. Pakistan’s two other provinces, Sindh and Baluchistan, are expected to follow suit when their provincial legislatures meet Wednesday.
If President Pervez Musharraf chooses to resign rather than face impeachment, would he get a “safe exit”? If he does, would he remain in Pakistan or go abroad? If he decides to go abroad, is Turkey his destination or the U.S.? If he is impeached, would he be tried?
As the tempo builds up for the impeachment of the retired General Musharraf, these questions are uppermost on everyone’s minds, but there are no clear answers yet, only a whole lot of rumours and speculation.
One story doing the rounds has it that General Musharraf wants to step down, provided the ruling coalition guarantees it would grant him an amnesty, and that the Army is working on getting him such an assurance.
The Nader/Gonzalez independent campaign for President is now on the ballot in 30 states and has a goal of being on the ballot in 45 states by September 1st. Nader is on the ballot is Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, California, Washington, Alaska and Hawaii. In addition, Nader is a write-in candidate on the ballot in North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Indiana. The other goal that the Nader campaign has is getting to participate in the debates.
If you are thinking of writing in Hillary Clinton, it is not a good idea. In some states it is actually illegal and in other states that it would invalidate your entire ballot and still worse in others your vote would count towards the nominee of the Democratic Party. Check with your Secretary of State before making a mistake to express your outrage.
From the Nader campaign:
Join us in Denver for the “Open the Debates Super Rally” during the 2008 Democratic National Convention. Open the debates and take democracy back from the bipartisan, corporate tyranny of The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).
To ensure that only members of the Democratic and Republican Party are allowed to participate in national presidential debates, the CPD requires that candidates poll at least 15% nationally, as measured by the average of five corporate media polls. When the NONPARTISAN League of Women Voters hosted debates, they employed a fair 5% rule as measured by independent polls.
Help us challenge the CPD during the “Open the Debates Super Rally” on August 27th in Denver to end corporate control over our electoral process. Special guests TBA.
‘A thin girl could be blown away in the wind, people think she is a stick and she will never find a husband.’
Mauritanian women have traditionally aspired to gain excess weight, which symbolizes beauty and wealth as well as hastening the onset of puberty, but norms are changing as awareness spreads about the health risks associated with obesity. The practice is called gavache from the French practice of fattening geese for foie gras.
In particular, critics are speaking out about the health problems suffered by girls who are fattened at a young age through force-feeding. Over the course their lives, Mauritanian women “risk developing serious cardiovascular problems, hypertension, gall bladder problems and diabetes.” Barely into their 40s, fattened women are dying from obesity-related diseases. Mauritania is one of those rare countries where male and female life expectancy does not differ much. 54.1 years for women and 54.9 years for men. I have seen other statistics that point a life expectancy of 64 years in Mauritania but those discount the infant mortality rate. Thus a Mauritanian. child who survives his or her fifth birthday can expect to reach 64 years on average.
More on the practice of force-feeding young girls in Mauritania below the fold. (more…)
While my antipathy towards Barack Obama could not be greater, that has not translated into empathy or support for Senator McCain but if McCain’s speech today is any indication then I am growing increasingly comfortable with McCain. No doubt, there are and will likely always be serious disagreements. McCain and I will never see eye-to-eye on gay rights. This is after all a gay blog (I know it’s hard to tell but if you met me you probably couldn’t tell either) and gay issues do and will always matter. But I have never been a single issue voter instead I vote values and worldview. Obama doesn’t share my values and his worldview is that of a child. Why can’t we all get along? Kumbaya my lord kumbaya. The world doesn’t work that way. Obama’s outlook is a recipe for disaster.
McCain’s approach is that of realist. He sees the dangers. He saw this one. Today is a somber day and we face the grim reality of a resurgent Russia unafraid to use its muscle to bully others around. Paranoia in Russia runs deep, it is almost part of their soul. Thus Russia lashes out rather than seeking to engage. Talk to an Estonian, a Pole, a Hungarian, or a Czech about Russia. Get their perspective.
Russia now looms large on the geo-political horizon. They still have nuclear weapons. Even more potent perhaps is that they have something the West needs, oil and natural gas. And Russia has already shown that it will use trade as a weapon. Convincing Russia that it belongs to the West will not be easy. Only the Russian people can make that decision but they have acquiesed with Russia’s headlong march into authoritarianism because Putin brought a measure of stability and consumer goods. We need to make Russia pay for this and pay hard. We need to limit the ability of Russians to travel abroad, freeze Russian accounts, prevent Russia from selling arms abroad. And we need to prevent a repeat of our loss in Georgia from happening elsewhere be that the Baltics or the Ukraine. Today we are all Georgians. Democracy matters. And that is really what this blog is about. Its writer just happens to be gay.
Five million two hundred thousand petition signatures were delivered today to the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil in Bogotá, Colombia by a committee that is urging a change to the Colombian Constitution that would permit Álvaro Uribe’s re-election to a third term. We have already been through this once. In Colombia, Presidents serve one four year term and then have to sit out a term before they can run again. To allow Uribe to run for a second term in 2006, we changed the Constitution. We would have to do it again.
Uribe’s term expires on August 7, 2010. And Uribe remains immensely popular in Colombia with approval ratings ranging from 80% to 91% depending on the poll. Five million petition signatures is quite a testament to his popularity as well. That’s more than 10% of the country.
I adore Uribe but I am leaning to voting NO to a third term. I will vote NO on the Constitutional Reform. There are others who are ready and able to continue Uribe’s legacy. Juan Manuel Santos or Carlos Holguin Sardi for example. Should the reform pass, and should then Uribe actually decide to run (he has not made his intentions clear but didn’t dissuade this effort either), then I’ll likely vote for him. I’m not quite sure who the Liberal Party will nominate, there is a chance of César Gaviria Trujillo who was President from 1990-1994. I am sure that the Polo Democrático Alternativo, the left-wing party in Colombia, will run someone. The Conservatives will also likely run a candidate. I am uncomfortable with long stays in power even as much as I adore Uribe.
One guy is talking what ifs, non-starters and preaching kumbayas, the other is telling you how dire the situation is. Georgia is lost. The next battle is for the Ukraine. McCain gets that. Obama may have to be shown a map.
Let’s see if I got this right, Obama is calling for:
1) United Nations Security Council Resolution condemning Russia. Problem: Russia is a Permanent Member of the United Nations with Security Council and thus has veto power over any resolution. Sure you can have a debate at the Security Council, actually there already have been, but it isn’t going to go anywhere. Obama does not seem to understand how international politics is played. While Obama talks, Russian tanks have severed Georgia in two. Gori has fallen and Russia seems to have set its sights on the capital, Tbilisi.
2) Replacing Russian peace-keeping troops in South Ossetia with a multi-national force. Problem: Russia is a Permanent Member of the United Nations with Security Council and thus has veto power over any UN peace-keeping force. And does Senator Obama really think that Russia is going to allow a United Nations peace-keeping force made up of foreign troops, albiet under UN command, on its southern flank? Proposing non-starters is a waste of time. Try being realistic.
3) Condemning Russian actions in the court of world public opinion. Problem: Does Russia care what the world thinks at this point? Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin met with US President Bush in Beijing the day the crisis erupted. President Bush issued stern warnings to both sides. Putin then flew off to North Ossetia to direct the Russian campaign. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is off to Moscow tomorrow. The Russians have already stated that the French peace proposals are DOA (dead on arrival).
4) Sending an objective and neutral International Mediator to the region. Problem: There’s nothing to mediate at this point. I wrote earlier that Russia will accept a cease-fire when Russia achieved its war aims. I was mistaken to believe those war aims were limited to ousting Georgian forces from South Ossetia but it is now increasingly clear that Russia aims to take control of Georgia. Georgia is an imperfect democracy but it is a democracy. It won’t be one much longer. A puppet government is on its way and I expect right now that President Mikhail Saakashvili will form a government in exile. What is there to mediate? And between whom? Russia will redraw the borders in the Caucusus because it can. We are powerless. I wrote earlier that we lost this round, let’s not lose the next. The next one is the Ukraine and Moldova.
Obama’s assertion that Russia has escalated this war beyond South Ossetia, while factual, misses the whole point. This war is not about South Ossetia. South Ossetia may have been the casus belli but this splendid little war for Russia is a message to the United States, to Europe and to NATO that Russia is a player. Call it a greeting card from a resurgent Russia.
The West made many mistakes. We pushed for Kosovar independence and recognized a state that has no business being a state. When Brazil and India note that they would only recognize Kosovo when Serbia did, that was the right path to take. Furthermore, the Bush Administration pushed for missile defence systems in the Czech Republic and Poland to protect Europe from an Iranian attack. I am not sure how putting such a shield in Poland protects Europe from Iran. No matter the intent, the Russians clearly felt that these were directed at them. With the prospects of Georgia and the Ukraine becoming NATO members, Russia was clearly unhappy at that. Georgia is paying the price of Western mistakes plus its own miscalculations. Much is yet unclear how this war was orchestrated but it does seem that Russia goaded Georgia into an armed intrusion into South Ossetia. It was a trap. The West now faces tough choices.
Obama’s calls seem more of his kumbaya oh lord kumbaya rhetoric that simply shows how out of touch the very junior Senator from Illinois is. The joke is that when Obama found out that Georgia had been attacked, he asked if Atlanta was okay. The corollary is that when McCain found out, he promised to send to General Sherman.
Georgia is lost. Let’s not lose the Ukraine. Putin has run circles around Bush, can you imagine Obama? At least with McCain, he has been sounding the alarm for a decade. Experience does count. So does realism and Obama on Georgia shows a fatal flaw. He is divorced from reality.
