From what little I know about Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, it would be fair to say that our politics are vastly different. However, watching him this morning on ABC’s This Week with Jake Tapper sitting in for George Stephanoupolous I was left amazed how on message and how focused the Louisiana Governor was. As a surrogate, he simply excelled. Even when challenged on his own views differed from Senator McCain’s views on drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge (McCain is against, Jindal is for), Jindal turned the moment on its head and into a positive for McCain. I was impressed with his tenacity and yet he wasn’t overbearing. He does speak a mile a minute and sort of leans forward into the camera but in terms of message. Wow. He is on.

On ABC’s This Week, Jindal was asked about a sharp retort from John McCain after Obama said that McCain was unduly influenced towards our ally because of Scheuneman’s prior work for the Republic of Georgia. In this clip, Jindal defends McCain from an Obama attack on McCain for being too pro-Georgian because of Scheuneman’s position on the McCain campaign. Is Obama obtuse or just plain stupid? Or worse is he a traitor? How one cannot have sympathy for a small nation that is getting eaten alive by a resurgent superpower? One gets the picture that contrary to Obama’s own views, that foreign affairs are his weakest suit and not his strong point as he has suggested.

In case you missed it, here’s my assessment of the US response and the views of the Presidential candidates: Do Not Feed the Bears, Do Not Taunt the Bears.

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A senior Western diplomat said it was unclear whether Russia intended a full invasion of Georgia. “They seem to have gone beyond the logical stopping point” to retake the separatist regions, he said.

With Georgian troops on the retreat and reports confirming that Georgia has exited South Ossetia, the war rages on with Russia moving in more troops and equipment in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The questions now are: what is the Russian endgame? How far will Russia go to punish Georgia? Russian jets have laid waste to Gori, the town on the Georgian side of the border from South Ossetia. Will Russia content itself with pushing Georgian troops back or will it launch an assault on Tblisi. If so, what then will be the American and European response?

Gori Bears the Burnt of the Russian Assault

A report from the New York Times:

Russian tanks and troops moved through the separatist enclave of South Ossetia and advanced on the city of Gori in central Georgia on Sunday night, for the first time directly assaulting a Georgian city with ground forces after three days of heavy fighting, Georgian officials said.

Georgian tanks were dug into positions outside Gori and planning to defend the city, said Shota Utiashvili, an official in Georgia’s interior ministry. He said the city of Gori was coming under artillery and tank fire. There was no immediate comment from Russia.

A senior Western diplomat said it was unclear whether Russia intended a full invasion of Georgia. “They seem to have gone beyond the logical stopping point” to retake the separatist regions, he said.

The Bush administration said Sunday that it would seek a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning Russian military actions in Georgia. And in a heated exchange with his Russian counterpart at the United Nations, Zalmay Khalilzad, the American ambassador, accused the Kremlin of seeking to oust Georgia’s pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili.

(more…)

Voters in Bolivia's Referendum

The polls have just closed in the Andean country of Bolivia, exit polling shows that Evo Morales, the country’s embattled President, will win some 56% of the yes vote and thus remain in office. Morales, himself, called this recall referendum to demonstrate his popularity in this energy-rich but poor nation. No reports as yet whether or not the eight governors of the various regions survived the recall. Six of the eight are members of the opposition. Morales’s Vice President, Álvaro García Linera, was subject to the recall vote.

Here is some background from Qatar’s Al Jazeera:

Voting has ended in Bolivia’s recall referendum, which could put an end to the mandates of Evo Morales, the president, or to those of the opposition governors ranged against him.

Pre-poll surveys suggested Morales would easily survive Sunday’s vote, but that up to three of the eight governors on the ballot might lose their jobs.

Morales called the referendum hoping to boost his authority over the governors, who have refused to adopt measures to redistribute wealth to the country’s indigenous minority.

But though he may win the vote, the result is unlikely to end the stand-off with his rivals, with analysts warning that conflicting rules on how to interpret the results could create confusion.

According to congress, which is relying on the constitution, Morales or the governors can be ousted if the number of ‘No’ votes exceed the amount of support they received in 2005 elections.

Thus Morales could be forced out if more than 53.74 per cent of voters go against him, while the governors can be toppled with just 38 to 48 per cent of ballots.

But the National Electoral Court has offered a very different formula: Morales’s bar remains at 53.74 percent, but the proportion needed to bring down a governor is 50 per cent plus one ballot.

The uncertainty sparked some isolated incidents of violence ahead of the polls.

On Tuesday, Cristina Kirchner, Argentine president, and Hugo Chavez, Venezuelan president, both allies, had to cancel a visit to see Morales in southern Bolivia when anti-government protesters stormed the airport.

Morales’ political opponents have branded the referendum “illegal” and vowed to not recognise the results.

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These are some new ads that have just been released in the past few days from various Senate races around the United States.

Al Franken, Democratic-Farm Labor Candidate in Minnesota

Senator Roger Wicker, Republican Incumbent in Mississippi

Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican Incumbent in Kentucky

Dave Cuddy, Alaska Republican Primary Challenger to Senator Stevens

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From Russia Today:

Russia is calling it a “genocide.” The South Ossetian envoy to Russia is alledging that Georgia used mercenaries, possibly Americans. Welcome to Russian propaganda.

From the Associated Press:

It may come to be known as the Four Day War but Georgia’s miscalculation in trying to seize back South Ossetia looks likely to end. At the start of this war, Georgia had nine jet fighters, while Russia over 1,700. Georgia possessed 128 tanks – compared with Russia’s 23,000. A fight of equals it was not. Russia blockaded the Georgian coast and punished the Georgian city of Gori which Russian jets pounded into rubble. Even with the Georgian army in retreat, there are still fears of a wider war. The movement of Russia’s naval fleet from their base in Ukraine to positions near Georgia also threatened to destabilise the region. Ukraine’s foreign ministry threatened to prevent the warships from returning to their base in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol. ANd Russia has been accused of opening up a second front in the other breakaway of Abkhazia in western Georgia.

And in case there’s any doubt as to who runs Russia, it was Prime Minister Putin, not President Medvedev, who went to the front.

News Reports
From the UK Guardian:

Georgia today said it had withdrawn its forces from the breakaway province of South Ossetia as it accused Russia of escalating the conflict by imposing a naval blockade and of preparing to attack Georgian troops in Abkhazia province.

The New York Times reports that Russia is tightening its grip on Georgia:

Russian troops that had poured into the disputed territory of South Ossetia moved up to the border with Georgia on Sunday, as the conflict appeared to be developing into the worst clashes between Russia and a foreign military since the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

Overnight, Russia landed ground troops off of warships into the disputed territory of Abkhazia and broadened its bombing campaign to the Georgian capital’s airport.

The Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe said Georgia was ready to negotiate a ceasefire, but a top Russian defense official said no formal offer had been received.

Georgian authorities said Sunday morning that they expect Russian attacks to come on three fronts — from Gali and Zugdidi, two spots on the Abkhazian border, and from Ossetia, according to Gigi Ugulada, the mayor of Tbilisi. They also expect more bombing on the Kodori Gorge, the only part of Abkhazia that remains under Georgian control.

The Baltic Times looks at how the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are handling the crisis. These three states were invaded by the Soviet Union in 1940 and the West did nothing.

Der Spiegel writes

The world is looking to the Caucasus region with dismay. President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia has sent his country’s forces into the breakaway region of South Ossetia, and its protector, Russia, has retaliated by sending in tanks and aircraft. Is a region that is home to all of 75,000 people about to become the scene of a hot war?

News Analysis
The New York Times finds that despite the fact that Georgia is a strong US ally, the US needs Russia more. In effect, Georgia is on its own.

I highlighted this piece by James Traub yesterday also of the New York Times but it is an excellent piece. It is entitledTaunting the Bear:

It’s scarcely clear yet how things will stand between the two when the smoke clears. But it’s safe to say that while Russia has a massive advantage in firepower, Georgia, an open, free-market, more-or-less-democratic nation that sees itself as a distant outpost of Europe, enjoys a decisive rhetorical and political edge. In recent conversations there, President Saakashvili compared Georgia to Czechoslovakia in 1938, trusting the West to save it from a ravenous neighbor. “If Georgia fails,” he said to me darkly two months ago, “it will send a message to everyone that this path doesn’t work.”

During a 10-day visit to Georgia in June, I heard the 1938 analogy again and again, as well as another to 1921, when Bolshevik troops crushed Georgia’s thrilling, and brief, first experiment with liberal rule.

Georgians are a melodramatic people, and few more so than their hyperactive president; but they have good reason to fear the ambitions, and the wrath, of a rejuvenated Russia seeking to regain lost power. Indeed, a renascent and increasingly bellicose Russia is an ominous spectacle for the West too. While China preaches, and largely practices, the doctrine of “peaceful rise,” avoiding confrontation abroad in order to focus on development at home, Russia acts increasingly like an expansionist 19th-century power, pressing at its borders. Most strikingly, Russia has bluntly deployed its vast oil and gas resources to punish refractory neighbors like Ukraine, and reward compliant ones like Armenia.

European Blogs
From Fistful of Euros an article by Douglas Muir that asks if Georgia was lured into a trap:

Well, the South Ossetia conflict is going pretty badly for Georgia. The Russians appear to have cleared Tsikhinvali, and they’ve moved over six! hundred! armored vehicles into theater. Russian bombers have struck at a number of military targets inside Georgia, and the Russian Navy is maneuvering off the Georgian coast.

It’s increasingly clear that the Russians were very ready for this conflict. In fact it’s looking like the Georgians did exactly what Moscow wanted.

Was Georgia played?

More from Fistful of Euros, one of my favourite Euro blogs, in a post by David Weman based on reporting from Tbilisi that US failed to inform the Georgians of the build up and perhaps even encouraged President Saakashvili’s confrontational approach with Russia:

The Americans have more or less encouraged Saakashvili’s dangerously confrontational approach to Russia, and have given them hopes of NATO membership, which was never going to happen. They may also have had unrealistic expectations about US support in the event of a war.

Robert Amsterdam however finds that Russia’s position on Georgia is self-defeating. Sure Russia has lost in the court of world public opinion, but does it matter? Authoritarian regimes such as Putin’s are not out to win a popularity contest. Russia has sent a stern message to the West.

Wannabe NATO member on the Warpath by Jerome a Paris of the European Tribune.

McCain’s Wrong on Russia and So Is Obama by Paul Saunders and Brooke Leonard of Russia Blog.

In case you missed it, here’s my assessment of the US response and the views of the Presidential candidates: Do Not Feed the Bears, Do Not Taunt the Bears.

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Actually, the Białowieża Forest is split between Poland and Belrus. The Białowieża Forest is what is left of Europe’s forest primaeval that once stretch from the Urals to the Atlantic. It’s the dark forest of Hansel and Gretel, the source of our myths and legends. Patches of this great European forest existed throughout Europe as late as the 18th century but now apart from the preserve on the Polish-Belorussian border, all of it is gone. Cut in the name of progress and firewood.

In the Białowieża Forest, you will find 500 year old oaks with lichens dangling from them. Great Mamamuszi is the thickest oak in the forest. The trunk circumference at the height of 4 feet (130 cm) from its base is 690 cm or 22 feet. The tree’s name stems from Molière’s The Bourgeois Gentleman, in which the main protagonist, a Mr Jourdain, was appointed the Mamamouchi by a Turkish ambassador. The tree has a column-like trunk and reaches a height is 34 m (111 feet). The tree’s circumference can widen by 10 cm (not quite 4 inches) a year. Of all the oaks in Białowieża with a circumference greater than 600 cm (19 feet), it is in the best condition.

It is the last holdout of the wisent, the European bison, which is smaller than its American cousin. There are badgers, woodpeckers, deer, owls and perhaps even a magical creature or two. Ironically, the Białowieża Forest exists because it was set aside as a hunting preserve. The forest was declared a hunting reserve in 1541 for the protection of wisent. It passed from Polish kings to Russian Tsars who hunted in the preserve. In Soviet times, members of Politboro had their dachas in the Białowieża Forest. The park is a UNESCO World Hertitage Site. But now Poland and Belarus want to “manage” the forest. Why does that worry me?

You’ll find more of the world’s natural parks in the enviroment and travel sections. One park a week is highlighted.

Stunning in her stupidity. But let’s face it, it is more an indictment of the failure of the US educational system than anything else. We need to increase spending across the board in education but mostly in science. We’re still debating evolution. That’s simply unthinkable elsewhere.

In 1966, US-born males received 71 percent of science and engineering PhDs, US-born females earned 6 percent of those degrees, and foreign-born students received 23 percent of those doctorates. By the year 2000, US-born males received just 35 percent of science and engineering PhDs, while 25 percent of those doctorates were awarded to females and 39 percent to foreign-born students. The increase in female science and engineering PhDs is laudable as is the gain in overseas science PhDs. Still we need to increase the number of total PhDs and that investment starts by interesting children in science.

Unfortunately, I have to catagorize this in the science category because I don’t have a dumbass category.

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Here is news from Latin America.

Evo Morales’ Day of Reckoning in Bolivia
Voters in Bolivia will vote on Sunday whether President Evo Morales should stay in office in a referendum proposed by the Bolivian leader to try to break a political stalemate in the bitterly divided Andean nation. More from the Los Angeles Times.

Morales, his vice president and eight state governors face recall votes that could throw them all out of office. Polls indicate that Morales is likely to retain his job, though several governors who oppose his policies could lose theirs.

A tense atmosphere prevails across the country. Violent anti-government demonstrations and airport blockades forced the cancellation of an energy summit with the presidents of Argentina and Venezuela. There have been threats to obstruct the vote and reports of gunfire directed at the vehicle of a Cabinet member.

Here is another story from the Miami Herald on this topic.

Colombia To Send Technical Personnel to Afghanistan
The government of Alvaro Uribe announced that it would send technical assistance to Afghanistan but not combat troops. Colombia will send anti-mine specialists as well as an engineering brigade to Afghanistan. Furthermore, Colombia will continue to train Afghan police in anti-narcotic techniques in Colombia. Colombia contributes 500 peace-keeping troops to the UN Mission in the Sinai.

In order news from Colombia, the medical doctor to FARC guerrilla leader Alfonso Cano has been captured and arrested. Also arrested was another FARC guerrilla said to be the girlfriend of the killed guerrilla leader Raul Reyes.

The Economist Profiles Fernando Lugo, Paraguay’s President to Be
Recently relieved of his pastoral duties by Pope Benedict XVI, Fernando Lugo is set to become Paraguay’s next President next week. The Economist profiles the new leftist on the South American block:

Just where Mr Lugo will fit in the spectrum of Latin America’s leftist presidents is not yet clear. His foreign minister, Alejandro Hamed, has expressed sympathy for Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. Mr Lugo himself has expressed admiration for Chile’s Michelle Bachelet, a more moderate socialist. Under Mr Lugo, Paraguay may open diplomatic relations with China, ending its current link with Taiwan.

But it is Mr Lugo’s relationship with Brazil that is likely to have the most impact on his presidency. The two countries share the Itaipu hydroelectric dam (still the world’s largest until China’s Three Gorges is completed). Paraguay uses less than a tenth of Itaipu’s electricity; under a treaty, it sells the rest of its half share of the power to its neighbour at a price which is well below spot prices in Brazil. Mr Lugo said that he wants to renegotiate the treaty, but he has recently sounded more conciliatory.

The Mexican Drug Wars
Under unprecedented pressure, Mexico’s drug cartels have unleashed epic violence, which some say shows that antidrug measures are working. I am not quite sure if I buy that logic. Here’s the story from the Miami Herald.

Venezuelan Protests
There were major pro-Chávez and anti-Chávez protests in Venezuela this week in the wake of Chávez’s 26 decrees that largely enacted into law what Chávez failed to accomplished at the ballot box last December and over the Tribunal Supremo de Justicia’s, the Venezuela Supreme Court, ruling that ruled over 250 politicians ineligible to run for office in the upcoming November local and regional elections. The opposition called the decrees a “coup” by fiat.

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News from Africa

Negotiations in Zimbabwe
South African President Thabo Mbeki is trying to secure a deal between his Zimbabwean counterpart, Robert Mugabe, and the opposition’s Morgan Tsvangirai. The BBC provides an update on the ongoing talks in Harare.

Talks are under way in Zimbabwe to try to finalise a power-sharing deal between President Robert Mugabe and the opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

South African President Thabo Mbeki is acting as mediator at the talks, which are taking place in a Harare hotel.

Reports in some South African papers say a deal is close, and that a final agreement could be reached shortly.

Mr Mugabe and Mr Tsvangirai are due to meet after more than a week of talks between their parties, reports say.

One widely touted solution is that Mr Mugabe, the Zanu-PF leader, may become ceremonial president while Mr Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, is made executive prime minister.

But there has been no official comment on these reports, apart from statements from all sides that the talks have been progressing well.

More on this story from the UK Guardian

The Mauritanian Coup
The Mauritanian army puts soldiers on the streets of the capital, and the civilian leadership in detention, as it takes power of Mauritanian in a coup. The military junta deposed the government just over a year after country’s first democratic elections since independence in the 1960’s. The coup leaders promised to hold fresh elections “as soon as possible”. Al Jazeera’s Inside story asks: Is it a set back for democracy? Or setting the right democratic path after a power struggle at the top?

In other news from Mauritania, the African Union (AU) has suspended Mauritania’s membership in the wake of a coup in that country. An AU spokesperson El-Ghassim Wane said in Addis Ababa that membership is automatically frozen in the case of a coup. More from the Ghana Broadcasting Corporation.

Former Botwsana President Launches New Initiative to Fight HIV/AIDS
Former Botswana president Festus Mogae has launched a new initiative that will try to use the energy and experience of a group of renowned and forthright African leaders to persuade their peers on the continent to inject fresh energy into their efforts to combat AIDS. Africa is the region hardest hit by the HIV/AIDS pandemic, with countries south of the Sahara home to 22-million people with the disease, two-thirds of the world’s total. More from All Africa.

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After college I had taken a job in Europe and before leaving the American West I wanted to see the American West so with a buddy I trekked up to Yellowstone National Park for some backcountry camping. Before they would issue us our permits, we had to attend a short lecture by the Park Rangers on do’s and don’ts in the wilderness. One of the phrases that stuck with us on that hike was the ranger’s admonishment of “do not feed the bears, do not taunt the bears.” When it comes to the Russian bear, that dictum also holds true.

Western Misteps and Western Impotence
As Russian tanks and jets effect the de facto separation of South Ossetia from Georgia, the West seems content with calls for a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal to the status quo ante. President Bush in Beijing, who met with Russian Prime Minister Putin yesterday, today urged Moscow to stop bombing immediately, saying it marked a dangerous escalation. Pity his government didn’t notice Russian tanks massing at the border the past weeks or worse take the Russians at their word that recognition of Kosovo would bring a response or that missle defence shields in the Czech Republic and Poland would be seen as a threat to Russian security. In the Georgian crisis of 2008, there is much blame to spread across most of the West.

Recognizing Kosovo was a blunder of historic proportions. More prudent is the government of Brazil that said it would recognize Kosovo when Serbia did. That, of course, is the tact to take. But to appease Islamic governments in the Middle East or to assauge a guilty conscience because the West failed to prevent ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, the West largely rushed headlong into recognition of a state that has no business being a state setting a dangerous precedent and opening up a Pandora’s box of would-be mini states in Transdniester, South Ossetia, Northern Cyprus and Abkhazia.

The Next Generation: Lost in Space
With Bush’s missteps and impotence all too evident and US elections under three months away, we of course have the two US Presidential candidates weighing in with pronouncements. One is utterly naive and so lost in the halls of silliness with empty rhetoric that one wonders if he took courses in appeasement at Harvard Law; the other is more reality based yet offers little concrete solutions as to how he would actually tackle the problem, other than by a return to a Cold War, of a resurgent Russia that can and will increasingly say nyet to the West.

McCain, a long-time outspoken critic of Putin’s Moscow, noted the situation in Georgia was dire. “Tensions and hostilities between Georgians and Ossetians are in no way justification for Russian troops crossing an internationally recognized border,” he said in a statement. He added “I again call on the government of Russia to immediately and unconditionally withdraw its forces from the territory of Georgia.”

McCain added, “Given this threat to Euro-Atlantic security, I am pleased to see the United States, the European Union, and NATO acting together by sending a delegation to the region, in an effort to broker a cease fire. This is an important first step.” A bit divorced from reality, however. There will be a cease fire when Russia is ready for one, not before. You would think he would know this given American adventurism around the world over the course of his lifetime. Superpowers say when, others acquiesce. Or you stop them before they get going. Since it is too late for that, Russia will present a fait accompli.

To his credit, McCain has been criticizing Russia for years, particularly for what he sees as its backsliding on democratic reforms and human rights. “For many years, I have warned against Russian actions that undermine the sovereignty of its neighbors,” he said. “Unfortunately, we have seen in recent days Russia demonstrate that these concerns were well-founded.” My question for McCain is will your bite match your bark? What steps will you take? Will you move to freeze Russian assets? Inhibit Russian travel abroad? Kicking Russia out of the G-8, as McCain has threatened to do, hardly seems appropriate either. Isolating Russia isn’t the answer, confronting it by engaging it is likely to yield better results. This is not the Russia of yore either. Its citizens no longer want for consumer goods and they now travel the world, and often first class at that. We’d be better off approaching them and convincing them that being Western means an open society at home.

Obama also condemned “the violation of Georgia’s sovereignty” and said that “Russia must stop its bombing campaign, cease flights of Russian aircraft in Georgian airspace and withdraw its ground forces from Georgia.” In his statement, Obama called for direct talks among all sides and said the United States, the U.N. Security Council and other parties should try to help bring about a peaceful resolution. Kumbaya my lord, kumbaya, oh lord kumbaya.

“I condemn Russia’s aggressive actions and reiterate my call for an immediate ceasefire,” Obama said in a statement. Bravo. Did you get it on tape? Historians will want it for the great moments in irrelevancy series.

“Russia must stop its bombing campaign, cease flights of Russian aircraft in Georgian airspace, and withdraw its ground forces from Georgia.” Or what? What actions precisely can you take or are you prepared to take? If you’re playing hard ball on the international stage with Putin, you’d better be play to actually effect something, otherwise Putin is going to run circles around you as he has around a much more savvy Bush. Let me remind the very junior Senator from Illinois that in the past year, Russia launched a cyber-attack on Estonia and cut off gas supplies to the Czech Republic and if you think that Russia isn’t prepared to freeze Europeans in their own homes, think again.

Late to the game as always, Obama has now stepped up his criticism of Russia since the crisis started. He has called for an international peacekeeping force and said Russia could not be a neutral mediator for political disputes over South Ossetia and Abkhazia — both pro-Russian separatist regions backed by Moscow. Unfortuantely Obama seems to forget that back in 1992-93, we as part of a United Nations Security Council resolution agreed to have a Russian peacekeeping force in South Ossetia. We are powerless. We lost this round. Let’s not lose the next one.

“The current escalation of military conflict resulted in part from the lack of a neutral and effective peacekeeping force operating under an appropriate UN mandate,” Obama said. “Russia cannot play a constructive role as peacekeeper.” Memo to Obama, Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council with veto power. Do you really think that Moscow is going to back a multi-national UN peacekeeping force on its southern flank? How out of touch can you be? That statement speaks volumes as to how inexperienced Obama is and why he is unqualified to be Commander in Chief.

Obama states the obvious and ignores the reality. You can’t dictate to a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia can say nyet and there’s nothing we can do about it. China and Russia vetoed a resolution on tightening sanctions on Zimbabwe and you think Russia is going to go for mediation and foreign troops on or near its soil?

Furthermore while perhaps in American jurisprudence parties to a conflict do not serve as mediators, in international conflicts that’s not the case. The United States serves a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict despite the fact that we are Israel’s strongest ally. Or take the case of Turkey in northern Cyprus which Turkey invaded in the 1974 and has occupied since. For better or for worse, Turkey is a mediator in that conflict. Unlike plaintiffs and defendants in a civil case, nation-states have armies and they are all too often willing to use them. Learn the difference between de facto and de jure. That might help. I can just imagine Obama meeting with Putin. At Harvard Law, they said this. To which, Putin would say at the KGB we do it this way. Obama says de jure with rhetoric, Putin says de facto with tanks.

Czechoslovakia 1938, Georgia 2008
Georgia will be dismembered, of that I have little doubt. De facto now and likely de jure in time. The West most certainly will not risk confrontation with Russia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Short of war, we have no leverage because we abdicated our responsibilty to engage Russia and change Russia forever, to make it truly Western. Instead, we largely ignored Russia during the Clinton and Bush years and now we find ourselves confronting a Russia that has remade itself on its own terms.

In Eastern Europe, we chose to win at the margin. We took the Warsaw Pact, the Baltics, the Ukraine and the Caucusus and made them part of our world. They, no doubt, were ready and willing to join the West but so was Russia and we ignored them. Why? Because it would cost too much. Pity because it is likely to cost us far more now. Engagement was the answer then as it is now.

Now we face Putin’s Russia, an authoritarian state and one with some of the world’s richest energy reserves in an energy starved world. Indeed, some have called Russia a “petrostate”. But unlike other petrostates like Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Iran, Russia has been a world power since the days of Catherine the Great and under Vladmir the Nasty it aims to recapture its standing in the world by hook or by crook.

We need to confront the reality that Russia is again a world power and an authoritarian state with its own agenda. And this Russia has something more potent than nuclear weapons, it has oil and natural gas. We will sacrifice Georgia like we sacrificed Czechoslovakia in 1938 because then as now we are impotent. And as we face this election in the United States, we can elect Neville Obama or Winston McCain. Franklin Clinton is sadly not an option.

World Editorials
Prisoner of the Caucasus from UK Guardian.
Russia is asking for trouble in Georgia from the Financial Times.
Eruption of War in South Ossetia from the Irish Times.
Russia On the March from the UK Telegraph. A snippet from the UK Telegraph editorial:

Make no mistake about the unequal nature of this struggle. Georgia has nine jet fighters, while Russia boasts 1,736. Georgia possesses 128 tanks – compared with Russia’s 23,000. Imagine, for a moment, that Nato leaders had granted Mr Saakashvili’s request for a “membership action plan” during their last summit in Bucharest. Would Russia have dared act in this way if Georgia had been firmly on the path to joining NATO?

Privately, Georgian officials warned that denying this request would give Russia a window of opportunity to sabotage their prospects of NATO membership. President George W. Bush was the only leader who publicly supported Georgia’s position precisely because America feared that anything less would trigger Russian intervention. Sadly, his judgment has been vindicated.

Stopping Russia in the Washington Post.

World Op-Eds
How Georgia fell into its enemies’ trap by Edward Lucas in the Times of London.
Taunting the Bear by James Traub in the New York Times.

Comment & Articles on European Blogs
When Conflicts Thaw: South Ossetia by Doug Merrill of Fistful of Euros.
South Ossetia: Alea Jacta Est by Douglas Muir of Fistful of Euros.
Wannabe NATO member on the Warpath by Jerome a Paris of the European Tribune.
McCain’s Wrong on Russia and So Is Obama by Paul Saunders and Brooke Leonard of Russia Blog.

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