The above videos are from Russia Today, Russia’s English language world service channel and only one side of the story, the Russian side. Below is a more balanced report from Qatar’s Al-Jazeera.
Here is a report from the UK Guardian with video and another from the UK Independent that summarize the fighting on the ground. The rest of my post is devoted to background and analysis as to the why of this war, the why now, and the impact on global politics.
War, of course, brings a human toll. This slideshow from the New York Times shows some of that side.
Here is a summary of news and reaction from around the world to the outbreak of hostilities in the Caucasus. This is not in chronological order but rather more a compendium of events.
The best overview that I have seen is from the UK Guardian:
Why has fighting broken out?
The South Ossetians and Georgians have been sniping at each other for several weeks and patience on both sides has finally snapped. South Ossetia and Georgia’s other breakaway region, Abkhazia, have enjoyed de facto independence since the early 1990s but Tbilisi has never recognised the loss of its territory. The dispute between Georgia and the two regions was called “the frozen conflict” because the issues remain unresolved, but there was no fighting. The heat began to rise this year when the west recognised Kosovo, against Russia’s advice. The South Ossetians and Abkhazians argued that if Kosovo could be independent, then so could they.
What is the basis of the region’s claim to independence?
The Ossetians are descendants of a tribe called the Alans. Like the Georgians, the Ossetians are Orthodox Christians but they have their own language. In Soviet times, the Ossetians had an autonomous region within Georgia. The Georgians say the Ossetians cooperated with the Bolsheviks and tended to be more pro-Soviet. Their ethnic kin live across the border in the Russian region of North Ossetia, so today they feel more drawn to Russia than to Georgia and many have Russian passports.
Abkhazia on the Black Sea coast was also an autonomous region of Georgia in Soviet times. It has a mixed population of Abkhaz, Mingrelians, Greeks, Armenians, Russians and Georgians and a small but significant Muslim minority. Thousands of ethnic Georgians fled their homes in Abkhazia during the civil war in the early 90s and now live as refugees in Tbilisi and Moscow.
Why has Russia become involved?
Russia says it cannot stand aside because many of the people in the breakaway regions are its citizens. Georgia accuses Russia of meddling in its internal affairs and supporting the separatists, although Russia’s peacekeepers are supposed to be in a neutral role. Georgia accuses Russia of double standards in suppressing its own separatist rebellion in Chechnya while encouraging separatists in Georgia. Russia has become more engaged in the region since Georgia expressed an interest in joining NATO, the very idea of which appalls Moscow.
What might happen next?
So far, this has been a proxy war, with Russia encouraging the separatists, but Russia and Georgia could find themselves in direct conflict. Russia’s prime minister, Vladimir Putin, today accused Georgia of aggression and warned that a response was inevitable. Georgia said Russian jets had started bombing its territory.
What are the wider implications?
The conflict could widen out further still, with former Soviet republics supporting Russia and the US and Europe backing Georgia. The root of the problem is that the world community cannot agree on rules for the independence of small regions.
The Daily Mail has this illustration:
The Genesis of the Georgian War
The United States Calls on Russia to Withdraw
The United States told Russia on Friday to withdraw its forces from US ally Georgia and stop its air attacks on the tiny Caucasus state following fighting in the breakaway region of South Ossetia. The language here is very important. It is a “call” on Russia to withdraw, not a demand or an ultimatum. Secretary Rice’s statement:
We call on Russia to cease attacks on Georgia by aircraft and missiles, respect Georgia’s territorial integrity, and withdraw its ground combat forces from Georgian soil.
The US is deploring the impact on civilians and believes Russia’s actions “mark a dangerous and disproportionate escalation of tension.” Effectively, this means that the United States is not going to intervene on the side of Georgia despite attacks on a Georgian base used for NATO training exercises and attacks on a oil pipeline that runs through Georgia. More from Reuters. Importantly, the United States did not condemn Russia either and instead called for a cease-fire and offered to send an envoy to the region. This indicates that US believes that it can act as a mediator and bring the conflict to at least a temporary cease-fire. Prudence and caution seems the American by words for now.
Nonetheless, American intelligence and diplomacy failed to detect and prevent the onslaught of war in South Ossetia.
“The build-up of forces was more than expected and they moved earlier than we thought they would,” said a U.S. military official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
That statement is unbelievable. It implies that we thought the Russians were going to move and we failed to stop it. Sad the incompetence of the Bush Administration and of Javier Solana, the European foreign minister. They must have seen this coming. Many international observers have been warning about the folly of stoking Russian ire on a host of security issues.
As I wrote earlier, this is partly the result of recognizing Kosovar independence. This war is entirely the result of the failure of Western diplomacy. It is folly as well to pursue missile defence systems in Poland that geographically speaking seem out of place to defend Europe from an Iranian attack that seems highly improbable to start. While there are many causes to this war, Western recognition of Kosovo is one of the main ones. I believe that Kosovo can only be recognized once Serbia agrees to it. As Serbia has not agreed, then Kosovo should not have been recognized. Russia at the time warned of retaliation. This is it.
Here is a report from February 2008 that highlights Russia’s views on Kosovo independence.
Abkhazia Threatens Georgia with Second Front
Georgia’s march into South Ossetia has prompted the Abkhazia to begin preparing for war as well. Germany’s Der Spiegel has an interview with Abkhazian Foreign Minister Sergei Shamba.
Georgia's Breakaway Regions
How the Caucasus Erupted
Firefights in South Ossetia and the danger of a second front in Abkhazia are the latest flare-ups in an old conflict. First the people in the breakaway regions lost their faith in the Georgian government, then they lost hope of any help from Europe. More from Germany’s Der Spiegel.
Georgia Plans Martial Law and a State of Emergency
Euro News reports that Tbilisi plans to impose martial law and is set to declare a state of emergency. The report includes a video.
Georgia Shoots Down Two Russian Fighters
The UK Telegraph reports that Russia said two of its warplanes have been shot down in fighting over Georgia, as new air raids were carried out including one which Georgian authorities said had devastated a Georgian port. The UK Telegraph has excellent coverage of the war now raging in the Caucasus.
The Refugee Crisis
Of South Ossetia’s 70,000 inhabitants, approximately 30,000 are now refugees on the Russian side of the border. Euro News reports on the refugee crisis. The report includes a video.
World Editorials
Prisoner of the Caucasus from UK Guardian.
Russia is asking for trouble in Georgia from the Financial Times.
Eruption of War in South Ossetia from the Irish Times.
Russia On the March from the UK Telegraph. A snippet from the UK Telegraph editorial:
Make no mistake about the unequal nature of this struggle. Georgia has nine jet fighters, while Russia boasts 1,736. Georgia possesses 128 tanks – compared with Russia’s 23,000. Imagine, for a moment, that Nato leaders had granted Mr Saakashvili’s request for a “membership action plan” during their last summit in Bucharest. Would Russia have dared act in this way if Georgia had been firmly on the path to joining Nato?
Privately, Georgian officials warned that denying this request would give Russia a window of opportunity to sabotage their prospects of Nato membership. President George W. Bush was the only leader who publicly supported Georgia’s position precisely because America feared that anything less would trigger Russian intervention. Sadly, his judgment has been vindicated.
Stopping Russia in the Washington Post.
World Op-Eds
How Georgia fell into its enemies’ trap by Edward Lucas in the Times of London.
I will add more when the US and Canadian media print their Saturday & Sunday editions.
Comment & Articles on European Blogs
When Conflicts Thaw: South Ossetia by Doug Merrill of Fistful of Euros.
South Ossetia: Alea Jacta Est by Douglas Muir of Fistful of Euros.
Wannabe NATO member on the Warpath by Jerome a Paris of the European Tribune.