Florida Congressional Districts

Florida offers a rich prize of 27 electoral votes, 10% of the total required to win the Presidency. In 2004, George W. Bush won Florida by 52.1% to 47.2% margin over John Kerry.

Survey USA (SUSA) has a new poll out today that shows McCain enjoying a comfortable six point margin. That margin is slightly more than Bush’s five point win in 2004. Not a bad place to be.

In an election in critical swing-state Florida for President of the United States today, 08/04/2008, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll pre-election poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Pensacola. Obama leads by 9 points in Southeastern Florida, where he takes 52% of the vote; McCain takes 52% of the vote in Central Florida, 53% in Southwestern Florida, 55% in the northeastern Florida, and 59% in Northwestern Florida. Among voters younger than Barack Obama (47), Obama leads by 5 points. Among voters older than John McCain, who turns 72 at the end of the month, McCain leads by 13. Among voters in-between their ages, McCain leads by 14. Among white voters, McCain leads by 19 points. Among black voters, Obama leads by 68. Hispanics favor Obama by 60 points. McCain leads among both men and women, among both college grads and non-college grads, among both those who earn less than $50,000 a year and among those who earn more than $50,000 a year.

Most polls heretofore have shown Florida as in the “leaning Democratic” or “slightly Democratic” column so these new polling results are either an outlier or suggest a shift in the race. Coupled with other polls, both nationwide and in individual states, the trend seems to be the latter. There is a discernable if nascent shift in the race. It is now increasingly evident that in the past fortnight despite the “glory that was Baghad, the awe that was Berlin” that support for Obama has eroded. There was no bounce for Obama in the US. To be frank, his waffles have had more bounce.

As to why this is, I believe that McCain’s attacks mocking Obama have raised questions as to the character and substance of Obama and have for now painted Obama as an arrogant, holier-than-thou and out of touch elitist not to mention pitiful and laughable. Watching Morning Joe with Joe Scarborough this morning was illuminating. The first ten minutes of the show was spent watching and discussing McCain’s “The One” Internet-only ad. All the other cable news shows pretty much did the same. It’s not the ad per se, it is that they are largely only talking about the ad.

Whatever it cost the McCain to produce this ad, the dividends have been enormous. The ad is politically brillant on many levels. For starters, Obama’s messianic rhetoric is not likely to sit well with the average middle-of-road American. Young hip urbanites long on hope but short on the lessons of political realities may buy it. And certainly those uptown latte-sipping, fresh from the club with yoga mats under their arms with bottled European water in their fanny packs, headed to Whole Foods for a pound of arugula, and yet still looking for that ethereal redemption kind-of-liberals may buy it but will it play well in Kansas City or Penascola? Joe Scarborough, who was the Congressman from Penascola and thinks himself a “regular Joe”, thought the ad hit Obama “hard” and compared it to a boxing match where you open a cut above the eye with a jab and then keeping punching away. In short, it worked and it can’t hurt that they showed it over and over again. If this is a championship fight, round to McCain with Obama in the corner his aides trying to stop the bleeding. By no means a knockout, but a cut has been opened.

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He is the most passionate and erudite progressive liberal I know and so I thought I am not happy with any of my choices, so why not nominate someone who will really put this country back in the right direction, Norm Jenson. And in a flash at that. Norm, father of two, is the only blue soul in that reddest of red states, the Beehive state. And he’s quite the busy bee playing chess all night long, reading books by the score off his new Kindle, and blogging to his heart’s content over at One Good Move, one of the best blogs around.

Unlike he who must not be named, Norm won’t sell you out. Here’s Norm in all his finest:

I’m sorry, but Barack is a wimp. His recent equivocation on offshore drilling is digusting. All he has to say is offshore drilling, according to the Bush administration, will have no effect on prices for ten years and then no more than a nickle a gallon, but no, he demonstrates once again that his principles are as light as the air. He really ought to change his slogan from Hope and Change to Polls and Change. And yes, he is by far the better choice when compared to McSame, but the distance seems to narrow every day. You’d think he was trying to lose it.

But Norm saves his finest language for corporations. Here’s Norm on predatory lending back in January 2008:

A nice discussion of those who prey on the poor, those who prey on the unsophisticated, those greedy bastards who hide behind a corporate facade. They are the payday lenders, the sub-prime mortgage lenders, they are the new mafia. They don’t send out their goons to break arms. They pay politicians to pass laws to help them enforce their immoral behavior.

Barack Obama voted against limiting credit card rates to 30% because it wasn’t good enough. What the fuck?

I don’t know who I’ll support if an Edwards miracle fails. I had been leaning towards Obama, but I thought Hillary was better on the issues tonight, not as good as Edwards, but better than Obama.

Norm Jenson for President. It would be One Good Move.

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Primate Family Tree

Nearly half of all primates are in danger of becoming extinct, according to a study by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature.

Habitat destruction and hunting for food and the illegal wildlife trade are the main threats to the world’s 634 primate species – 303 of which are now classed as vulnerable, endangered and critically endangered. The outlook for monkeys, apes and other primates has dramatically worsened due to logging and hunting, with some species being ‘eaten to extinction’. I might add that overpopulation and depeletion of natural resources threatens the survival of another primate but that’s another story.

Yellow Cheeked Gibbon

Gibbons are native to South-East Asia. Gibbons are the most distinct of the Great Apes still humans and gibbons share 95% of the same DNA. We share a common ancestor some 20 million years ago. Gibbons are also unique in that they are truly and exclusively monogamous. The theory of extramartial mammalian sex holds that the larger the difference in body size between a male and female of species, the higher the number of sexual partners. Male and female adult gibbons are identical in size and mate for life.

Red-shanked Douc Langur

The red-shanked douc langur, Pygathrix cinerea, is found in Vietnam. In Asia, more than 70% of primates are classified on the IUCN red list as vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered and in both Vietnam and Cambodia, approximately 90% of primate species are considered at risk of extinction.

Zanzibar Red Colobus,

In Africa, 11 of the 13 species of red colobus monkeys assessed were listed as critically endangered or endangered. Two may already be extinct: Bouvier’s red colobus (Procolobus pennantii bouvieri) has not been seen in 25 years, and no living Miss Waldron’s red colobus (Procolobus badius waldroni) has been seen by a primatologist since 1978, despite occasional reports that some still survive.

Golden Lion Tamarin

On the positive side, intense conservation efforts in Brazil have helped targeted species like this golden lion tamarin (Leontopithecus rosalia) to recover, and their status has been upgraded from critically endangered to endangered. Golden lion tamarin are simply amazing.

Family of Mountain Gorillas Killed in Rwanda

Scientists also came close to downlisting the mountain gorilla to endangered following population increases in their forest habitat that spans the borders of Rwanda, Uganda and Democratic Republic of Congo. However, political turmoil in the region and an incident in which eight animals were killed in 2007 led to the decision to delay the planned reclassification. There are no words for me. I don’t believe in capital punishment, but this is a crime against humanity. They are our cousins and such wanton destruction of life is hard to fanthom. In my own travels I remember once in Sumatra I was offered a tiger skin and penis. It is hard to see a magnificent creature felled for folklore.

The news for western lowland gorilla is better. A census by the Wildlife Conservation Society raised the estimate for gorillas in the Congo jungle from between 50,000 and 100,000 to around 200,000, substantially changing the picture of a great ape population thought devastated by the Ebola virus, hunting and deforestation.

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Here is news from Latin America.

Transport Strike in Colombia
Ninety percent of Colombia’s trucking fleet stood silent on Monday, the fifth day of a national transport strike. At issue is the implementation of Resolution 2663 that established at 12.5% surcharge on the value of goods transported per tonne carried. The Asociación de Transportadores de Carga (ATC), the Colombian truckers’ association, charge that the decree is not being enforced and the trucker’s fee are much less. The strike is beginning to effect food supplies and has impacted exports to neighboring Venezuela.

Truckers Protest in Colombia

Chávez Joins Lula and Fernández de Kirchner in Buenos Aires
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Argentina’s Cristina Fernández de Kirchner met today in Buenos Aires and where unexpectedly joined by Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. The Venezulan press is unsure as to why Chávez self-invited himself but speculation is that a recent indictment of a Venezuelan detained in Argentina with $2 million USD a year ago that most observers believe was intended to finance the campaign of Mrs. Fernández de Kirchner might have something to do with it.

Lula, Christina and Hugo in Buenos Aires

With his usual flair of self-aggrandizement, Chávez spoke of a central axis in South America of Caracas, Brasilia and Buenos Aires.

“Hemos retomado la conformación de una alianza de tres de lo que desde hace varios años llamamos el eje central de Sudamérica: Brasilia, Caracas y Buenos Aires, para enfrentar desafíos del futuro en lo energético, en lo alimentario, en lo tecnológico”, dijo Chávez a periodistas en el aeropuerto de Buenos Aires.

“We have restarted the triple alliance of what we now several years ago called the central axis of South America: Brasilia, Caracas and Buenos Aires, to confront the difficulties that awaits us in the future in the energy field, in food security and in technology”, said Chávez to journalists in the Buenos Aires airport.

Proposed at this mini-summit by Chávez was an Expreso del Sur train from Caracas to Buenos Aires and a new pan-Latin American airline Aerolínea del Sur. Both Venezuela and Argentina’s national airlines are sub-standard. Venezuela’s Conviasa flies a few routes to the Caribbean plus Cuba, Bogotá and Quito and of all places Conviasa operates a twice weekly Caracas-Damascus-Tehran route. Aerolíneas Argentinas and Austral, owned by Spanish interests for the past 17 years, were recently nationalized though negotiations and ratification by the Argentine Congress still lie ahead. Brazil, on the other hand, has a vast airline network covered by both public and private airlines. Brazil’s Varig and TAM, Colombia’s Avianca and Chile’s LAN-Chile, however, are the region’s strongest carriers.

It is pretty clear that Chávez felt he had to attend this meeting a) to shore up support for the embattled Fernández de Kirchner and b) to curtail his growing isolation in the region. When it comes to Latin American geo-politics, it is Lula da Silva that is now calling the shots.

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The Oscar-winning actress Gwyneth Paltrow, who lives in London with her husband, Chris Martin, of the band Coldplay, stars in the above video produced by a Democratic Party affliated group on behalf of Senator Obama’s candidacy. The Internet-only ad urges US citizens living abroad to register to cast their ballot from overseas in November’s presidential election.

Speaking alongside several other Americans living abroad, Paltrow says: “Start now – right now.

“I’ll be voting from London, but you can vote from anywhere. If you live abroad, you’ve got to do it. Every single vote will count.”

The Shakespeare in Love star asks: “Where on earth will you vote?” The screen then shows the slogan: “Vote Democrat. Vote Obama. Vote from abroad.”

The internet-only video was produced by Democrats Abroad, a wing of the political party dedicated to winning the votes of the millions of US expats eligible to take part in domestic politics. Approximately, six million Americans live overseas but only about a fifth vote in US elections. One has to admit that Obama campaign is leaving no corner of the globe unturned in pursuit of electoral glory. Though generally in years past expats ballots tend to favour the GOP.

If you are an American living abroad, the partisan Vote From Abroad website can help you secure your absentee ballot.

In the past, I have used the non-partisan Overseas Vote Foundation. It is simple to use and has all sorts of useful information on the process.

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Best wishes to Oscar-winning actor Morgan Freeman who is in a hospital in Memphis, Tennessee on Monday after being seriously injured in a car accident near his home in Mississippi.

Regional Medical Center spokeswoman Kathy Stringer said Freeman, 71, is in serious condition. The hospital is about 90 miles north of the accident scene in rural Tallahatchie County in the Mississippi Delta. Mississippi Highway Patrol spokesman Sgt. Ben Williams said Freeman was driving a 1997 Nissan Maxima belonging to Demaris Meyer of Memphis when the car left a rural highway and flipped several times shortly before midnight Sunday.

Those under 35 not under may not recall that Morgan Freeman starred in the PBS educational series The Electric Company. For many of my generation, we grew up watching the antics and listening to the elegant diction of Morgan Freeman on The Electric Company.

Of course, his talents as an actor extended far beyond children’s television. Freeman won an Oscar for his role in ”Million Dollar Baby.” His screen credits also include ”The Shawshank Redemption,” ”Driving Miss Daisy” and ”The Dark Knight,” now in theaters.

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Colombian Defence Minister Juan Manuel Santos

Last week, the government of Rafael Correa in Ecuador informed the United States that it will not renew the lease of the US military base in Manta, Ecuador that houses some 300 US military personnel engaged in anti-narcotics operations. The US is thus searching for a new home in the region. Today the government of Colombia politely but firmly told the United States that Colombia will not accept a US military base in the country. The report in Spanish is from Colombia’s El Espectador.

According to El Espectador, Colombian Defence Minister Juan Manuel Santos, one of the leading candidates to replace President Uribe when his term expires in August 2010, told the Bush Administration last week during a visit to Washington that while Colombia would welcome increased cooperation in any bilateral or regional anti-drug trafficking efforts, Colombia could not and would not allow any permanent US military installation on Colombian soil.

In part, the decision stems from Colombia’s long-standing position on American military presence in the region. Americans need to recall that the US intervention in the region has had long-term disruptive effects. In Colombia, the US role in the separation of Panamá remains a potent political undercurrent in our relations with the United States. We have not completely forgotten it. As much as I welcome close relations with the United States and appreciate the military and technical assistance from the United States, the issue of US military base in Colombia is a non-starter. Don’t even ask. We are an ally, not a servant.

El gobierno de Colombia informó al gobierno de Estados Unidos que no está interesada en recibir una base militar que sustituya en la región a la unidad estadounidense que opera en Manta, Ecuador, informó el ministro de Defensa Juan Manuel Santos. Me alegra la posición del gobierno colombiano. A la hora de la verdad, hay que reconocer que Colombia es un aliado de los Estados Unidos pero que también las realidades históricas no permiten una base estadounidense en territorio colombiano. Si a un tratado de libre comercio, si a más cooperación en la lucha anti-drogas y la lucha anti-terrorista pero rotundamente no a una base militar en Colombia.

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A New to Science Thread Snake from Barbados

Eighteen new taxa are described in scientific papers today according to the naturalist encyclopedia Zootaxa. Among the new taxa is a new genus of odonata an order of insects, encompassing dragonflies (Anisoptera) and damselflies (Zygoptera) with eight new to science species. There are about 6500 extant species in just over 600 genera in the odonata order. Also among the new taxa is the world’s smallest snake measuring no more than 10 cm (4 inches) found in the Caribbean island of Barbados.

Opiliones: 1 new species of Opiliones from China
Echinodermata: 1 new species of Echinodermata from Argentina
Porifera: 1 new species of Porifera from Singapore
Reptilia: 2 new species of Reptilia
Odonata: 1 new genus and 8 new species of Odonata from South America
Lepidoptera: 1 new species of Lepidoptera from China
Hymenoptera: 2 new species of Hymenoptera from China and Argentina
Coleoptera: 1 new species of Coleoptera from Spain

More on the new beauty from Barbados from CNN:

A U.S. scientist said Sunday he has discovered the globe’s tiniest species of snake in the easternmost Caribbean island of Barbados, with full-grown adults typically stretching less than 4 inches (10 centimeters) long.

S. Blair Hedges, an evolutionary biologist at Penn State University whose research teams also have discovered the world’s tiniest lizard in the Dominican Republic and the smallest frog in Cuba, said the snake was found slithering beneath a rock near a patch of Barbadian forest.

Hedges said the tiny-title-holding snake, which is so diminutive it can curl up on a U.S. quarter, is the smallest of the roughly 3,100 known snake species. It will be introduced to the scientific world in the journal “Zootaxa” on Monday.

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A new poll out in Oklahoma shows Obama trailing badly in the Sooner state. From the Norman Transcript:

A new poll found little support among Oklahoma voters for presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama. The Oklahoma Poll found that Republican John McCain has broad support in the state to lead Obama by 32 percentage points, 56 percent to 24 percent. Seventy-one percent of those questioned said they are firm in their decisions.

“Oklahomans have their minds made up and they aren’t going to change come hell or high water, no matter what,” said poll consultant Al Soltow, vice president for research at the University of Tulsa.

The poll, sponsored by the Tulsa World and television station KOTV, is a statewide survey of 750 likely voters that was conducted July 19-23. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.58 percentage points. A trend noted in national polls of a substantial core of dedicated supporters for Obama is not evident in the Oklahoma Poll.

“The enthusiasm that Obama has generated in other parts of the country is certainly not evident here,” Soltow said.

In fact, enthusiasm for the campaign in general seems to be quite low.

Overall, 38 percent of those surveyed said they were more enthusiastic than usual about this year’s elections. About 32 percent said this year’s elections will make an important difference in the lives of themselves and their families.

Only those describing themselves as liberals indicated much excitement about this year’s elections.

“That goes a long way to explaining the low turnout in the primary,” Soltow said, referring to elections last week in which fewer than 20 percent of Oklahoma’s registered voters participated.

“I would rather have had somebody different than John McCain on the Republican side, but I can’t even believe who the Democrats picked,” said poll respondent Billy Garrison, a registered Democrat who often votes Republican.

“I know our country will be in bad shape if Barack Obama is elected president,” said Garrison, of Tulsa.

Another erstwhile Democrat, Charles Ogdon of Muldrow, said he believes Obama will be the next president, in part because Ogdon believes an Obama presidency would fit biblical prophesies concerning Armageddon and the Second Coming. But Ogdon isn’t happy about it.

“I know the news media give John McCain fits and are for Barack Obama, but tell me, what has Barack Obama done?” he said.

Oklahoma was one of the few red states that went decisively for Senator Clinton during the primaries. Of course, Oklahoma held a primary. Obama only did well in the caucus states where the voter participation was generally under 10% of the electorate. If not for the caucus system, Obama would not be the nominee.

In other polling news (please remember polls are nothing more than a snapshot of current political thought and in politics nothing is static), the Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll shows the race among registered voters in a dead heat however the poll of likely voters shows McCain with one point lead. The trend has been a decline in Obama’s number that has not generally translated into a gain for McCain (the undecideds have gone up). That now seems to be changing. Obama’s decline is beginning to translate into modest gains for McCain.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.

This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3.

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I am an equal opportunity basher. McCain doesn’t thrill me and you know how I feel about the very junior Senator from Illinois.

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