A new video by GeekLove on Barack’s backtracking. It is hard to trust someone who has no core convictions other than inflating one’s tires. There are fights worth having.
Bizet’s Habanera from the opera Carmen as performed by the Muppets.
The McCain campaign has unveiled a new ad in Spanish to run on Spanish language channels. The ad attacks Obama for omitting any mention Latin American countries during his recent speech in Berlin. In the latest Pew Research polls, taken before Obama’s trip, McCain sharply trailed Obama among Hispanics. Obama’s approval rating with registered Latino voters, the nationwide Pew Hispanic Center poll found, is at 66% versus 23% favoring McCain. This ad is an attempt to cut into that lead.
I suspect that McCain will improve his standing among Hispanics though it is unlikely that he will win a plurality of Hispanic voters. Still if McCain can take a third or more of Hispanics, it bodes well for the McCain campaign in key Hispanic laden battleground states such as Florida and Colorado.
While Hispanics account for more than 14% of the US population, they represent only a small percentage of the US electorate. In November, 2004, Hispanics accounted for 6.0% of all votes cast, up from 5.5% four years earlier. During this same period, the Hispanic share of the population rose from 12.8% in 2000 to 14.3% in 2004. According to exit polling, George W. Bush won approximately 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004.
For more on the 2004 Hispanic vote, this paper entitled The Hispanic Vote in the 2004 Presidential Election is an excellent reference.
Why am I not surprised?
“This wasn’t really a new position. What I’m saying is that we can’t drill our way out of the problem,” Obama told reporters. “And if we can come up with a genuine bi-partisan compromise in which I have to accept some things I don’t like, or the Democrats have to accept some things that they don’t like, in exchange for actually moving us in the direction of energy independence, then that is something I am open to.”
Let’s see how the press sees it:
Washington Post: Obama’s Shift on Drilling
Los Angeles Times: Major Obama shift on offshore drilling; some might be O.K.
ABC News: Obama Now Open to Off-Shore Drilling
Minneapolis Star-Tribune & McClatchy Newspapers: In major change, Obama says he’ll support offshore drilling
Kansas City Star: Obama shifts his position on offshore oil drilling
So either the press and the rest of us are all wrong and Obama is right OR the entire nation is right and Obama is wrong. Just admit you saw your poll numbers tanking and that you changed your mind. Clearly, McCain has found a winning issue on which to hammer Obama as surprise, “out of touch.” And now Obama just simply has landed himself in a quagmire. He may not look ridiculous but he sure does sound ridiculous. This might just be Obama’s Dukakis in a helmet and riding in a tank moment.
Hugo Chávez has a new appellation. He is now the “Generalísimo de los Ejércitos” of Venezuela and he gets four soles to go with the new title. That’s one more sol than the next highest general or admiral. He also gets the post of “commandante en jefe” or commander in chief. That’s actually a rare title in Latin America, only Fidel Castro has had it. Chávez now joins Fidel as a commandante. As per Generalísimo Hugo Chávez, there’s only one.
That Generalísimo Hugo Chávez has long made a mockery of himself is plainly evident, that he is now making a mockery of Venezuela is more recent.
Loyal dog stays by the corpse of his master.
It is a heart-breaking tale out of Caracas this morning but one very loyal dog stayed by the side of his master was assassinated on the streets of Caracas, Venezuela.
As of 2007, El Salvador has the world’s highest homicide rate at 55.3 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. Jamaica and Venezuela are tied for second at 49 murders per inhabitants. Since Chávez took over ten years, Venezuela’s murder rate has skyrocketed. As recently as 2000, Venezuela’s homicide rate stood at under 20 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. By 2004, it had crept up to 54 murders per 100,000 inhabitants, an increase of over 300%. Just two months ago, Venezuelan authorities were touting that the murder rate had declined by 25%. True, they are down off the 2004 highs but El Salvador and Jamaica are gang ravaged, Venezuela is not. Even neighboring Colombia still in the midst of war only has a rate of 37.3 murders per 100,000 inhabitants. And you wonder why his popularity is in decline?
It’s pretty clear that this has been a bad week for Barack Obama, the question is why? I am not really sure quite why, other than the obvious in my mind, but I am the first to admit most Americans do not yet see the danger that I see in Barack Obama.
The US Presidential race this year is certainly topsy turvy with the number of battleground states higher this time around. In part that’s due to the erosion of the Republican brand. A year ago, most seasoned observers felt any Democrat would coast to the White House but that was before that any Democrat was Barack Obama. If George W. Bush destroyed the GOP, look no further than Barack Obama for the erosion in the Democratic Party’s decline.
The good news for John McCain in Montana is that he has pulled even with Barack Obama. The bad news for John McCain in Montana is that he is only even with Barack Obama in a state that George W. Bush carried by 20 or more points both times.
Montana last went for a Democrat in 1992 in the three way race of that year and before that in 1964. Two years ago, Montana elected Jon Tester, a Democrat, to the US Senate and it currently has very popular Democratic Governor in Brian Schweitzer.
From Rasmussen Reports:
The good news for John McCain in Montana is that he’s gained six points on Barack Obama over the past month. The bad news is that the race is essentially even in a state that George W. Bush won by 20-percentage points in 2004 and by 24 points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana’s three Electoral College votes, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin, with Ross Perot picking up 14%.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote in Montana while Obama earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s all tied up at 47%.
A month ago, Obama had a five-point advantage in Montana. In April, the numbers were reversed and it was McCain by five.
McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of Montana voters, up a point over the past month. For Obama, 53% now have a favorable view, down four points.
Those figures include 26% with a Very Favorable opinion of McCain and 31% who think that highly of Obama. At the other end of the spectrum, just 16% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain but 29% hold such a view of Obama.
The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. He did so with 38% of the vote. The first President Bush got 35% of the Montana vote while Ross Perot picked up 26%.
Obama is preferred by 86% of Democrats and McCain by 80% of Republicans. The two men are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. One interesting note in the data is that five percent of Republicans say they’d prefer some other candidate while only one percent of Democrats feel that way. Among unaffiliated voters, five percent prefer a third option over either McCain or Obama.
Adding to McCain’s challenge in this historically red state is the fact that Montana’s very popular Democratic Governor is cruising to victory in his re-election bid.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Montana voters say that most reporters are trying to help Obama win in November. Just nine percent think they’re trying to help McCain. These perceptions are shared by voters throughout the nation.
Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a 64.8 % chance of winning Montana this November. At the time this poll was released, Montana is listed as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Nationally, Obama has been enjoying a modest but steady lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for several weeks.
I still think it is too early to focus on national polling numbers and to be frank the US presidential race is not one race but 51 separates races (actually a few more since both Nebraska and Maine elected their electors by Congressional district). In this regard, I believe it more insightful to focus on each race in each state than the overall popular vote. McCain can win the election and lose the popular vote.
Banco de Venezuela del Grupo Santander
Venezuela’s headlong decline into a dictatorship continued this week with two more surprises from Hugo Chávez. The first should worry all lovers of freedom and democratic governance. Using the decree powers granted him by the Chávez-controlled National Assembly, Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez issued 26 decrees with the force of law (con valor de ley). Problem is the decrees remained unpublished. We know that the decrees cover areas relating to the Venezuelan military, social security and pensions, the banking and agriculture sectors. Here is the full list provided by Globovision. The decrees are given but the actual laws remain a mystery. Hardly democratic.
The other big surprise is that Chávez will nationalize the Banco de Venezuela, Venezuela’s third largest bank, which is owned by the Spanish financial group, el Grupo Santander. The New York Times picks up the coverage:
The central bank sought on Friday to calm fears of faltering banks a day after President Hugo Chávez unexpectedly announced the nationalization of a large Spanish-owned bank, his latest effort to intensify state control over the economy through takeovers of private companies.
The nationalization of the bank would extend to the financial sector a series of takeovers, which Mr. Chávez initiated last year, in industries including oil, telecommunications, electricity and steel-making.
Mr. Chávez further shook the political establishment and financial markets on Friday when he disclosed that he had used his decree powers to issue 26 laws on Thursday. They included a banking reform, although the government did not provide details on any of the laws the president decreed.
The central bank was similarly vague in its attempt to reassure depositors that the banking system was solid. It said it had enough reserves to guarantee normal financing operations throughout the economy, but did not provide new figures on its reserves, which are thought to exceed $30 billion.
On Thursday, Mr. Chávez announced plans to nationalize the nation’s third-largest bank, Banco de Venezuela, owned by the Spanish financial giant Santander. Compensating Santander could cost the Venezuelan government more than $2 billion, banking analysts here said.
President Pervez Musharraf with Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani
“Nobody in Pakistan wants to see America win,” said Hamid Gul , a retired general who’s a former director-general of the ISI. “That would spell danger to Pakistan in the long run. They, America, want to make us subservient to India.”
“The Karzai government is totally in the hands of India ,” said Khalid Khawaja , a former ISI officer who served in Afghanistan in the 1980s during the war against the Soviet invasion and once described Osama bin Laden as “a wonderful person.” He adds “They want to break up Pakistan and seize our nuclear assets. Today, if NATO attacks Pakistan , the Taliban and al Qaida will be the front line of our defense.”
See the problem? That’s the thinking inside one of the world’s most secretive and best-run intelligence services, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Agency, the vaunted ISI. I became very familiar with the ISI when my friend from college Daniel Pearl was murdered in Karachi in January 2002. To this day, I remain convinced that rogue elements inside the ISI played a role in his kidnapping.
Over the years since Danny’s death, I have followed what little news there is on the ISI. No doubt, it is one of the world’s most impressive intelligence agencies and one on which the United States and the West depend on for intelligence and support in one of the world’s most troubled spots. I don’t have an intelligence background and to be frank if it weren’t for Danny’s death, my interest in the ISI would be far less but now I spend a fair bit of time reading up on the ISI and its rather nefarious dealings.
My conclusion is a simple one. The ISI is a state within a state. It largely runs itself outside the chain of command of Pakistan’s military establishment which of course runs Pakistan. Pakistan is likely to be in the coming decade the global hot spot given both Al-Qaeda’s growing refuge there but also because Pakistan is a failed state and one with nuclear weapons at that.
Sitemeter, which monitors the traffic on this blog, is performing a migration of servers this weekend. If you are using Internet Explorer, then you will not able to view this blog using Internet Explorer. With luck the problem will be resolved by Monday. The blog can still be viewed normally using Safari or Firefox web browsers. I actually pay $6.95 a month for the service so we will see how this goes.
When blogging from home I use my partner’s PC and Internet Explorer, but in my office I use my Macs. Given this disruption of service and coupled with the fact that I now have a dreaded summer cold, I expect my blogging to be relatively light over the weekend. With luck, I will pick up my normal activities come Monday.
Thanks!
Charles