Economic Impact of the Iowa Floods

It is still too early to assess the dollar amount damage of the floods in Iowa, it is fair to say that number will run into the billions of dollars. At this point, the floods in Iowa are an unfolding human tragedy though thankfully the lost of life has been minimal. It could have been far worse. The Cedar Rapids river flooded a ten block radius of Cedar Rapids. Parts of Des Moines and Iowa City, home to the University of Iowa, are under water. There are flood waters rising across the state. In some areas, rivers are expected to crest at 32 feet. And more rain is on the way.

Iowa Corn Crop 20% Destroyed
Soggy Corn

Twenty percent of the state’s corn crop has been lost and this means everyone in the United States as well as many others overseas will be impacted. Here’s what Senator Tom Harkin said on Iowa Public Radio on Thursday, June 12th:

Iowa Senator Tom Harkin will join fellow Senator Chuck Grassley Friday for a tour of the floor and storm damaged areas of the state. Harkin says they want to get a first-hand look at the damage and talk with local officials and get their assessments. He says they want to find out what’ll be needed to help clean up, and Harkin says he wants to find out if the things that are in the Ag bill for disaster assistance will work.

Harkin, a Democrat from Cumming, says they hope to get an idea on the amount of aid that will be needed. Grassley says he will see what FEMA can do to be helpful for homeowners and to assess how much will be needed in some kind of emergency legislation to provide help.

“Just like we did in (hurricane) Katrina…we’re gonna help the victims of this flood too,” Harkin says. Harkin says the impact of the flooding is already going beyond the state because of the damage to crops.

Harkin says the futures prices on corn and beans are already going up on a daily basis and are likely to go higher. Harkin says we won’t know the total impact until it’s know how much of the crop can be replanted, and how much will still emerge, “But I think we are in a very precarious situation here.” Harkin says there’s no doubt the flood damage will have an impact on food prices.

Harkin says he’s seen estimates of corn prices as high as nine dollars or more a bushel. “That’s going to be very tough on our pork producers, our cattle and chickens..Iowa we’re the number one egg producer in the country and those chickens eat that corn, and I’m telling you it’s tough, so there’s going to be a lot of fall out from this one,” Harkin says. Harkin says there are conservation measures in the farm bill that if implemented could help ease some of the runoff and erosion caused by flooding.

Iowa Corn Production
In 2006, Iowa corn farmers grew almost 2.1 billion bushels of corn on 12.4 million acres of land. In 2007 they harvested more than 2.5 billion bushels on a record breaking 13.9 million acres. In 2007, Iowa corn growers harvested an average of 182 bushels per acre. That’s pretty remarkable because the grandfathers of these Iowa farmers likely only harvested 50-55 bushels of corn per acre. That 130 bushel increase per acre is due to a few factors: oil-based pesticides and fertilizers and better more robust seed varieties.

Just how much corn Iowa produces is astounding. Iowa has produced the largest corn crop of any state for each of the past 14 years. In an average year, Iowa produces more corn than most whole countries. For example, Iowa grows three times as much corn as a country like Argentina. Still the bulk of that corn is not really for direct human consumption. Very little of the corn you see growing in Iowa is sweet corn. For example, Iowa farmers harvested 11.9 million acres of field corn in 2002 but only 4,876 acres of sweet corn, according to the U.S. Census of Agriculture. Most of the corn is destined for use as corn syrup and feedstock and for the production of corn-based ethanol.

Twenty percent of 2.5 billion bushels means 500,000 bushels have been lost. The loss of such a large of amount of corn will have a ripple effect throughout the food economy. Anything that has corn syrup in it will rise. All pork and chicken prices because corn is the primary feed stock. Last year corn prices rose substantially and in the short time of this year so far corn prices have risen an additional 20% because of worldwide demand for corn as livestock feed, use in sweeteners and to produce ethanol. American farmers are foregoing other grains to plant high cash-producing corn. This monetary incentive has even caused wheat supplies to diminish such that wheat prices are also up 21% and soy prices rose 25% this year. There is no reason now for these trends to continue unabated.

More pictures below the fold.

Des Moines
Highway Near Des Moines

For complete coverage of the floods in Iowa, please visit the Des Moines Register. I’ve added the newspaper to US Media Blogroll so you can access the site in the future.

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