There is no exit polling data for Oregon as Oregon conducts its primary entirely by mail. Thus a survey of voters in Oregon is done by phone and thus the data is unscientific. That said, there are a few broad conclusions that can be drawn.
As of 8:30 PDT, Obama is leading by 59% to 41% with 39% of the precincts reporting. Most of the precincts that have reported are from Portland and its suburbs down through central Oregon including Salem and Eugene. Eastern and western Oregon have yet to report. As these are the areas where Clinton was expected to do well, I would expect the margin to close to around 10 points perhaps slightly under double digits.
UPDATE
As of 9:45 PDT, 55% of Oregon’s precincts have reported. Obama’s margin has narrowed slightly to 58% to 42%. Eastern Oregon has yet to report fully. That should narrow the margin a bit more. Still right now it looks like a 10 point win for Obama.
Two data points to share. Oregon is atypical in its level of education. Seventy-eight percent of Oregon voters have a high school degree. That’s about 15 points higher than the national average. Obama won this group 59% to 39%. Of the 46% of Oregonians that have a college degree, 64% voted for Obama.
Oregon is also highly irreligious. While Clinton and Obama split both the Protestant and Catholic vote, Obama carried the 31% of Oregon voters that are either athiest or expressed no religious preference. Obama carried this group by 62% to 36% margin.
From the Christian Science Monitor:
Overall, turnout looks to be big in the Beaver State, according to ballot numbers through late last week. As of Thursday, Oregonians sent in more than 580,000 ballots for the Democratic and Republican primaries. In comparison, about 420,000 ballots were received in 2004 and 475,000 were returned in 2000 over the same period. Overall, voters have returned about 29 percent of ballots – compared with 23 percent in 2004 and 26 percent in 2000.
What can be discerned from analyzing the number of early voters? Generally, high turnout figures have favored Senator Obama during the primary season. Officials at the Oregon secretary of state’s office also indicate there has been an extremely large increase in new voter registrations - a phenomenon that has also tended to favor Obama thus far.
More Data
Women made up 55% of the electorate, about average nationwide. The under 30 segment was 16% of the vote while the over 60 was 24%. Obama won 70% of the under 30 demographic. Clinton barely won the 60+ demographic, 50% to 47%. Clinton did win seniors (65+) 55% to 43%. Seniors made up 17% of the electorate.
Twenty-four percent of Clinton’s voters will not vote for Obama in the general election. That’s less than the national average, which I estimate at around 35%, but nonetheless that’s a metric that should worry both the DNC and Obama. Donna Brazile is flat out wrong when she states that “as voters get to know Obama, they will support him.” For me personally, the opposite is true. I started out last year as an ABC (Anybody But Clinton) voter and now I am an NBC (Nobody But Clinton) voter. I don’t think that I am alone in my thinking. The number of other websites, including BTF, that have sprung up I think is testament to that fact. David Gergen on CNN took a much more cautious tone with respect to Ms. Brazile comments. He was not so sanguine as to Obama’s prospects. Jeffrey Toobin argued that Clinton should denounce the racism. Funny how he didn’t say a word about sexism.
Women make up 56% of the electorate. Blacks are 12%. Pissing off 35% of 56% is a much larger number than pissing off 90% of 12%. Nor I do believe that the Clinton campaign is responsible for the racial overtones that this campaign has taken on now. That I lay at the feet of Jesse Jackson, Jr.
| Income | Electorate | Clinton | Obama |
| Under $15,000 | |||
| $15,000-$30,000 | |||
| $30,000-$50,000 | |||
| $50,000-$75,000 | |||
| $75,000-$100,000 | |||
| $100,000-$150,000 | |||
| $150,000 plus | |||
| Source: CNN, Associated Press |
Once again the pattern holds, Clinton won the lower socio-economic strata and Obama the affluent. His 66% showing in the $100,000 to $150,000 segment is stunning. Those that earn $100,000 or more make 21% of the Oregon electorate and Obama carried that segment by 64% to 34%.
The African-American vote in Oregon is neglible, about 2%. Pundits, like Donna Brazile, are pointing to Oregon as a demonstration that Obama can win white voters. Obama can win white voters, affluent white voters. That’s Oregon demonstrates. Even so 32% of Oregon voters said that Obama shares the Reverend Wright’s views.