May Madness in Indiana and North Carolina. It is as if this were an NCAA Final Four Collegiate Basketball Championship, a repeat of the 1981 title game between the Hoosiers of Indiana University and the Tar Heels of the University of North Carolina. Clinton and Obama looking to score decisive victories that may help seal the road to the nominating convention in Denver. But the story of the Democratic race has been that demographics is political destiny. In this regard, Tuesday is likely to be a split decision. Clinton wins Indiana and Obama wins North Carolina.
The latest polls in Indiana on Sunday night from Indianapolis Channel 6 News point to a Clinton slam dunk in Indiana. A statewide poll indicates a dramatic shift of support from Senator Barack Obama to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead of Tuesday’s Indiana Democratic presidential primary. The survey, conducted by Indianapolis-based TeleResearch Corp. and released exclusively to 6News, showed Clinton with a 10-point lead over Obama in Indiana — 48% to 38% — with 14% of respondents undecided. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3%. Other polls have the race tighter but only one poll points to an Obama win. The likelihood of a Clinton win here is pretty good.
Over in North Carolina, it is a different story.
Remember that demographics has been the rule for political destiny in this campaign since Wisconsin on February 20th when Obama was riding his tsunami crest flooding Clinton’s hopes as he rattled off 10 wins in a row. But now Obama is hoping to ride out this storm of his discontent by a strong showing in this demographically-favourable landscape.
The Democratic electorate in North Carolina is nearly 40% African-American. In Pennsylanvia Obama won 92% of the African-American vote so this affords Obama a nice cushion on which to his rest his laurels. If this were a basketball game at the tip-off, Obama leads 38 to 2. Most polls have shown an erosion of his support from double digits to mid-single digits. Still given his tip-off advantage, he should win comfortably. But instead of campaigning in Indiana, hoping to cut into Clinton’s lead there Obama is back in North Carolina. So are Hillary and Bill which raises the question: is North Carolina possibly a jump ball?
If North Carolina is up for grabs Clinton will have to accomplish a few things:
Clinton will have to hold Obama to less than 90% of the African-American vote. Her best chance to do this is by siphoning off votes of African-American women. In this regard, the Maya Angelou ad may have been critical. It is not about winning the African-American women’s vote but rather aiming to take 15% or more.
North Carolina recently passed New Jersey to become the nation’s 10th most populous state. A bridge between the mid-Atlantic region and the Deep South, it is adding almost 200,000 new residents a year, including upscale retirees and workers drawn to an economy in transition from agriculture and textiles to education, banking and biotechnology. Clinton has to do well among this new group of Tar Heels.
North Carolina is an open primary with on the spot registration. There will be large numbers of Independents and Republicans crossing over to vote in the Democratic contest as the GOP contest was long decided. Clinton has to win this group by a large margin to have any chance of catching Obama.
If Clinton is to have a shot the views of these voters have to carry the day:
Leslie Zanaglio, 46, quit her job as an insurance executive in Columbus, Ohio, and moved to Apex, N.C., not long ago. She said the furor over Obama’s pastor makes her wonder “where Obama’s judgment was for 20 years.”
Obama is “a professor,” said Zanaglio, who is backing Clinton “because of her experience and her positions on health care, the economy, handling foreign leaders and bringing the troops home. If she could win this state, then the superdelegates would really begin questioning Obama’s strength. I think they’re already questioning it.”
Maggie Maurer, 34, of Carrboro, an English instructor with a pierced nose who doesn’t look much older than her community college students, says that “people my age and younger are afraid to say they’re not for Obama.” She’s worried that “race is playing more of an issue in the campaign” and that after Wright’s latest statements, “people are starting to wonder if there’s some sort of black agenda at work. I don’t really know what to think. I hesitate to call anyone a racist, but I think if you just put all the pieces together, it makes people nervous.”
Tracy Monroe, who is black and owns a hair salon in Sanford, said she is torn between Obama and Clinton. Obama inspires her, she said, “but I personally like Hillary Clinton because I liked her husband as president.”
No wonder Barack Obama is in North Carolina. He’s worried that this primary may be one of those classic NCAA tourney upsets. He is hoping to run out the clock, Clinton is hoping for more overtime.
North Carolina Poll of Polls from RCP
Indiana Poll of Polls from RCP