The downward spiral of the dollar versus the euro continues unabated.

From Euro News:

The euro has hit $1.60 for the first time ever. The new record high came after European Central Bank governing council members Christian Noyer and Yves Mersch warned of a possible interest rate rise saying policy makers will act if inflation does not slow. Since January 2002, when it was first issued as notes and coins, the single European currency has risen 80% against the dollar.

Policymakers around ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet have sounded increasingly hawkish. At its last meeting, earlier this month, the bank kept rates unchanged at 4%.

A weaker dollar means pricier oil and OPEC’s Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said it was the currency situation and speculative trading that have caused the price surge, not a shortage of supplies from the producer nations: “I can tell you that other players on the market are causing the price to be on this level. I can tell you that because of the value of the dollar against other currencies … they go to oil, and not only to oil, they go to gold and other commodities.”

It is difficult to prognosticate when and where the slide level offs. The difficulty for me is that I do not know which policy implementations US officials have left at their disposal. The Federal Reserve has taken to cutting interest rates in the hopes of staving off a major recession in the United States. Clearly without tackling spending, the US will continue to borrow to finance its deficit and that drains resources from the global economy that would better spent on more important projects.

Here’s some of the results based on exit polls:

*58% of PA voters decided in the last week and broke for Clinton.
*92% of AA voters in PA voted for Obama.
*97% of AA men in PA voted for Obama.
*12% of AA women voted for Clinton.
*59% of weekly Church goers voted for Clinton.
*57% of PA Union households voted for Clinton.
*Turnout is double versus 2004. 52% of registered PA voters went to the polls today. That would make Pennsylvania the second highest turnout of this primary season. Only New Hampshire had a higher turnout at 52.5%.
*19% of Clinton voters will not vote for Obama in the General Election. Personally I think that number is higher and closer to 30%.
*17% of Obama voters will not vote for Clinton in the General Election.
*38% of PA voters would be happy with either candidate. That number does not bode well for the Democrats come November.
*Seniors (age 62 and over) broke for Clinton 61% to 38%.
*The under 30 vote broke for Obama 58% to 42%
*The Jewish vote went for Clinton 57% to 43%.
*The Catholic vote went for Clinton by a two to one margin.
*25% of PA voters were seniors.
*10% of PA voters were AA.
*35% of PA voters were from Union households.
*12% of PA voters were under 25 years of age.
*Clinton did better than expected in Philadelphia.
*Obama won just six counties in SE Pennsylvania and in and around Harrisburg. In effect, areas where there are greater concentrations of AAs.
*Obama ran 950,000 ads in Pennsylvania spending $11 million USD. Clinton spent $3.2 million on advertising. Obama outspent Clinton 4:1 in Philadelphia and 2.5:1 overall.

*Obama only won one socio-economic group: those that earn more than $150,000 or more a year. Clinton won everything else.

Data is from CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC. Ad data is from Advertising Age.

walked to school up a hill both ways? Well for the smallest residents of the five small hamlets Vuelta del Río, Bocas del Tetuán, Nicolás Ramírez, San Diego y Balsillas in the department of Tolima in Colombia, they have to wade across the río Teután to attend their colegio Nicolás Ramírez. Over 300 wake up at 4 AM to begin their trek to school. It has been 12 years since the last bridge was washed out in a flood. It’s time we built them a bridge.

As the price of oil and jet fuel continue to rise, airline stocks continue to plummet down to Earth. Jet Blue reported its F1Q 08 earnings beating the Street estimates. Jet Blue posted an $8 million loss that was narrower than expected and yet saw its shares fall $0.28 to $4.65. It should be thankful.

United Airlines parent UAL Corp. reported a $537 million first-quarter loss due to soaring fuel costs and saying it is cutting flights and 1,100 jobs. UAL shares slid $7.73 to $13.70 erasing one-third of the company’s market value. Shares of American Airlines lost $0.98, closing at $7.88, a 14% loss.

CEO Richard Anderson of Delta said in Washington today that in the face of record fuel prices domestic carriers would need to raise fares by 15% to 20% just to break even. At the same time, oil prices jumped by more than $2 to over $119/barrel and neared the $120 mark. This is the sixth closing record in seven trading days. Again, I believe we will see oil at over $125/barrel before the end of May. Thereafter they may be some relief.

Airlines are bound to be hit with escalating jet fuel costs as well as declining numbers of the flying public. With discretionary income decling broadly in American households, summer vacations will likely be held closer to home if at all. In this environment of soaring costs and decliing revenue base, the airline sector is likely to face greater consolidation pressures. Perhaps a UAL-USAir merger.

She’s good at losing winnable elections and apparently she wants to lose one more. In the Wall Street Journal she was quoted as saying:

There’s a group around [Sen. Clinton] that really wants to take the fight to the convention. They don’t care about the party. It scares me, and that’s what scares a lot of superdelegates.

Ms. Brazile, Gore’s campaign manager in 2000, apparently would prefer to offer a sacrificial lamb in November. Obama’s inexperience, naivete, wholsesale abandonment of core Democratic policy positions and his growing divisive politics will plague his campaign and doom it to a substantial loss. I echo Big Tent Democrat’s call on Talk Left.

Senator Clinton’s recent comments on an “umbrella of deterrence” to protect allies in the region in an effort to contain and restrain Iranian ambitions is receiving some criticism primarily from the usual suspects of liberal A-list bloggers like Josh Marshall and Matt Yglesias who should know better. Deterrence works. As a critic of US militarism and American Empire, I support policies such as nuclear deterrence because they have worked to keep the peace and because they are far cheaper than having a string of permanent bases, conventional deterrence, across the region. Clinton’s “umbrella of deterrence” is really in fact only a modest expansion and a slight reorientation of existing US deterrence policy. Deterrence dates back to the early stages of the Cold War to the American decision to defend Greece and Turkey in March 1947 from communist insurgencies. It bodes well for both Mrs. Clinton and the Democratic party to pick up the mantle of Harry S. Truman and to defuse the GOP on national security by embracing The Truman Doctrine.

I want to correct one misinterpretation by Matt Yglesias of the Atlantic Magazine:

I don’t have any strong objections to the idea of extending the US “nuclear umbrella” to protect Israel in case of an Iranian nuclear attack

Senator Clinton did not limit the umbrella of deterrence to Israel. It is actually as much intended to protect US allies in the Gulf and whatever emerges from the wreckage that is Iraq. Matt Yglesias is probably not aware that it is the Gulf Sheikdoms that fear Iran the most. And they have good reason to. Bahrain is a Shi’ite majority state with Sunni rulers. Manama’s strained relationship with Tehran is nothing new. Other Gulf states including Saudi Arabia have large pockets of Shi’ites as well.

I will write more on this later.

Gay Marriage in Medieval Europe. Yale Historian John Boswell whose book Christianity, Social Tolerance and Homosexuality won critical acclaim when published in 1981 is cited in this piece from the European Tribune

McCain’s Economic Advisor, former Senator Phil Gramm, is interviewed. Angry Bear has the details.

Brazilian Media covers the off-shore oil discoveries with some controversy in this review from Global Voices

University of Arizona Professor Lane Kenworthy considers if US income inequality is due to tax progressivity in his piece on Consider the Evidence

An Iranian-American Understanding? The story from The Asia Times

Two separate events collectively should put pressure on gas prices in the United States in the near-term. First it is that time of year called the Seasonal Blend Switch. This transition from winter-blend to summer-blend fuel, a blend that causes less smog by adjusting the proper Reid vapor pressure (RVP), occurs every spring. It causes a dip in gasoline supplies as refineries in the US shut down temporarily to retool their production facilities. However, what will be driving oil prices is news out of Nigeria today where the rebel Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) said its commandos had carried out the attacks on Monday against pipelines located at Isaka River and Abonnema River in Rivers State. In turn the Nigerian Oil Ministry has informed its customers that it will not be able to meet its deliveries for the balance of April and for the month of May. Nigeria is the fifth largest source of oil for the United States. More on this story: Nigerian Rebels Attack Oil Pipelines in Niger Delta

Here are a few links with world opinion as expressed by the world blogging community on the US Presidential Election. Technically, their comments are more on the race for the Democratic nomination than on the general election in November.

Australia

Ethiopia

South Africa